MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 5/7/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 5/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET

Mets Moneyline (+110)

Meeting in their fifth head-to-head contest of 2024, the New York Mets (17-18) and St. Louis Cardinals (15-20) will play another on Tuesday evening.

This will mark Game 2 from Busch Stadium as New York outlasted St. Louis on Monday thanks to a go-ahead home run from Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Still, with a moneyline price of +110 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, I see value on NYM for the second consecutive night.

The projected starters in this game are righties Jose Butto and Miles Mikolas. Buttó has been quite strong for the Metropolitans in 2024, yielding a 3.95 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with three quality starts over five appearances. Across the way, Mikolas has a 4.09 SIERA, but his 45.2% Statcast hard-hit rate is not ideal.

In the current campaign, the Red Birds have scored less total runs (121) than any other National League franchise, which works out to 3.46 runs per game. The Mets are much better in that offensive category, producing 4.40 runs per game.

The game projections at numberFire also echo support for New York to win outright on Tuesday. There, the Mets show an estimated winning-score of 4.75-4.15, leaving a 54.5% chance for the Mets to convert in this market.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Giants -1.5 (-110)

Folks in the Mile High might be a bit frustrated with the Denver Nuggets' current playoff situation, and unfortunately, action on the diamond has not been a positive distraction. The Colorado Rockies (8-26) are still struggling in 2024. Next, they'll host the San Francisco Giants (15-21) at Coors Field for an NL West clash.

Transparently, the Giants have also been reeling as of late, but they'll stand a good shot to bounce back on Tuesday behind left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison. This year, the 22-year-old hurler has showcased high velocity and veteran-level confidence. To start this series in Denver, Harrison sports a 3.63 SIERA.

For Colorado, Dakota Hudson is set to toe the rubber on Tuesday. Hudson has been blitzed for a 5.25 SIERA to this point. Hudson's 0-5 record is obviously bad, and his 5.02 FIP is a further indication of recent struggles.

San Francisco was just swept over four games at the Philadelphia Phillies, but I think they are a good candidate for a run-line wager -- at -110 odds -- tonight. If the Giants' offense can wake up versus Hudson, Harrison should be able to limit damage on the other side.

This is the first Giants-Rockies contest of 2024. Last year, S.F. went 9-4 against the Rox while covering -1.5 runs on five separate occasions.

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-114)

In an effort to keep things simple, the Los Angeles Dodgers (24-13) have been bruising the baseball lately. L.A. has won a dozen games in their past 14 tries, which includes an active five-game winning streak. Can the struggling Miami Marlins (10-27) get in the way of that on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium?

The Dodgers are largely the top offensive side in baseball. Right now, they pace MLB in OPS (.812), wOBA (.355), bases on balls (161), total runs (203) and runs scored per game (5.49). To compound dominance, superstars Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith all have OPS north of .850. So yes, I love over 7.5 total runs (-114 odds) tonight at Chavez Ravine.

The probable pitchers in this game are Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Edward Cabrera. Yamamoto has been solid as a rookie, but he's allowed three or more earned runs in half of his MLB starts. Cabrera is operating with extreme efficiency (2.99 SIERA), but he can be vulnerable in same-handed matchups.

If you caught my colleague Tom Vecchio's Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday, you are aware that he is honing in on Betts to go yard (at +460 odds). In 2023, Cabrera had issues against right-handed hitters, showing .419 SLG, 4.94 xFIP, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.3% hard-contact rate in the split.

Since April 21st, Los Angeles has scored 6.36 runs per game. Seemingly, Ohtani and company are launching baseballs into nearby Elysian Park on a daily basis. With everything here, I think the Dodgers and Fish can combine for eight or more runs. numberFire's MLB game projections see it the same way, yielding an estimated 8.31 runs on Tuesday, which translates to a 56.16% winning likelihood for over bettors.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.