MLB

MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/9/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees -1.5 (+106)

A rematch of the 2003 World Series, we probably won't see this meeting again in the upcoming Fall Classic. The Miami Marlins are currently down bad, displaying an overall record of 1-10. The New York Yankees -- sitting at 9-2 -- are pacing a talented AL East division.

On Monday, the Bronx Bombers welcomed the Marlins to New York by trouncing them 7-0. For the Yanks, that already marks their third win by five or more runs in 2024. Nestor Cortes (6 Ks) was particularly sharp in the series opener, and the Fish will have to deal with another southpaw pitcher on Tuesday: Carlos Rodon.

Miami is not hitting much of anything right now (scoring only 3.64 runs per game), but it certainly isn't going well for them against left-handed pitching. To this point, the Marlins have produced a .467 team OPS versus LHP. With the veteran Rodon back home in Yankee Stadium, I would lean on him as opposed to a reeling Miami team.

The Marlins will send out a lefty of their own on Tuesday, handing the ball to A.J. Puk. Through two starts in 2024, Puk is 0-2 with a 7.62 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). That leads me to believe he'll have a tough time against New York's righties, such as Aaron Judge (6 RBI), Anthony Volpe (1.155 OPS) and a resurging Giancarlo Stanton (.556 SLG). From there, left-handed hitters Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo will also put pressure on Puk.

Until the Marlins prove to me they can compete on a daily basis, they will be a team to target. With that, I'll take a hot Yankees team on the run line at plus money.

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Giants Moneyline (-174)

In the "City by the Bay," the San Francisco Giants will host the Washington Nationals for the second consecutive night. Yesterday, Washington upset the Giants in Blake Snell's team debut. On Tuesday, I believe San Francisco stands a solid shot to bounce back behind -- sticking with the southpaw theme -- another lefty in Kyle Harrison.

Harrison is just 22 years old and will be making his 10th Major-League start tonight. Through that span, he has produced 8.67 K/9. To maximize efficiency, Harrison has cut down on his issued walks in 2024, showing a 6.5% walk rate so far. For Tuesday, I think he can have his way with a Nats team that currently sports a .525 team OPS against LHP (compared to .790 OPS versus righties).

Washington will send out Josiah Gray for Game 2 on the shores of Oracle Park. Gray has struggled in the current campaign, surrendering six or more runs in both starts. Perhaps Gray will have more luck in San Francisco's pitcher-friendly venue, but he has yielded a dangerous Statcast hard-hit rate of 50%.

I expect Jung Hoo Lee (50% Statcast hard-hit rate) and platoon first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr (.412 OBP vs. RHP) to set the table versus Gray and for San Fran to get the W.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, 10:05 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

Last night at Petco Park, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres provided fantastic early-week entertainment.

Chicago blazed to an 8-0 lead by the fourth frame -- only for the Friars to snap off nine unanswered runs through the remainder of regulation. Specifically, a seven-run sixth inning powered San Diego's comeback effort.

Transparently, both sides here are swinging the bats well right now. In the series opener, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth all provided pivotal home runs. For the Cubbies, Dansby Swanson (.991 OPS), Ian Happ (.325 BA) and Seiya Suzuki (12 RBI) appear to be locked in through the season's early portion. Considering the offensive talent in both lineups, I love over tonight in San Diego.

The probable pitchers for Tuesday in the Gaslamps are righties Joe Musgrove and Ben Brown. Musgrove is a reliable veteran, but his 4.30 SIERA in 2024 isn't exactly razor sharp. On the other side, Brown is making his first MLB start. Still, he's already allowed 7 earned runs through 5.2 innings of relief work this year. With Brown going up against an explosive Padres team that is currently scoring 5.31 runs per game, I don't love this spot for the rookie.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections show a 4.44-3.41 result in favor of San Diego. That summates to a projection of 7.85 total runs, which is offers support for the over at a 52.1% likelihood. Considering Monday's offensive explosion, I believe these offenses can keep it rolling enough to produce eight or more combined runs on Tuesday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.