MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/23/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/23/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

Under 7.0 Runs (-105)

Taking a page out of my book from last night, I'll be targeting the under at Target Field. On an overcast evening, I believe the Chicago White Sox (3-19) and Minnesota Twins (8-13) will combine for less than seven runs (-105 odds) on Tuesday.

Yesterday, under 8.5 was an easy win in this AL Central romp. The ChiSox were shutout for the eighth time in 2024. Being that they have played only 24 games this season, that is an MLB record through that timespan. Talk about a headache for the Southside.

Notably, the White Sox (.548 team OPS) currently employ the worst offense in baseball. They've scored only 2.05 runs per game to this point while showing no signs of improvement. Minnesota has a stronger lineup, but not by much. The Twins have scored just 3.52 runs per game, which is third-worst rate in the Majors.

The projected starters here are Erick Fedde and Pablo Lopez. Both right-handers have had solid campaigns in 2024. Fedde has produced a 4.25 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) for Chicago whereas Lopez has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 25.8% for Minnesota.

In this spot, I like the pitching to stay ahead of the hitting. Additionally, Minneapolis is forecasted with less-than-favorable hitting conditions compared to yesterday (when the Twins snapped off seven unanswered runs).

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (+100)

Staying with divisional games, the NL West also has an interesting bid scheduled for Tuesday evening. At the home-run palace that is Coors Field, we'll see the San Diego Padres (13-12) and Colorado Rockies (5-18) in their second head-to-head meeting of the season.

The probable pitchers tonight in Denver are Michael King and Ryan Feltner. Each hurler has made four previous starts in 2024. Feltner's K/9 rate is stellar at 10.97, but he's given up 14 total runs through 21.1 innings pitched. Across the way, King has been medial, displaying a 4.23 SIERA with a 2-1 record.

San Diego has covered the run line in each of their past two contests and I think they stand a good shot to do so again on Tuesday evening. With Padres -1.5 currently labeled with even-money odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, I like the Friars to win by two or more on the road.

Entering Tuesday, San Diego has scored the fourth-most runs (121) in the National League. Conversely, the Rockies are the N.L.'s third-worst scoring team (81) despite playing home games in the Mile High. That sort of separation only compounds my confidence in the Friars tonight.

For Tuesday, numberFire also likes San Diego on the run line. Per their game projections, the Padres are expected to win by a score of 7.01-4.59, which translates to a 62.37% winning likelihood in this market.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, 9:40 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Orioles (-122)

On the outskirts of Disneyland, there will be a late-night clash between two American League clubs. The Baltimore Orioles (15-7) are concluding their current two-city road trip in Anaheim, and are set for a second game with the Los Angeles Angels (9-14) this evening.

Yesterday, Baltimore steadily built a 4-0 lead over the Halos by the seventh inning. LAA managed to put a scare into the O's with a couple runs on the other side of the stretch, but the comeback effort eventually fell short. In totality, the Angels were shutout through eight of nine frames.

Initially, I woke up this morning with intentions of playing the Orioles' moneyline, but at -158 odds, the price is not too enticing. With that, I believe there is better value for this game in the first-five-inning result market. On the three-way line, I like Baltimore to be ahead after five complete (-122 odds).

Grayson Rodriguez will toe the rubber for the O's while Griffin Canning is scheduled to go for the Angels. In 2024. Rodriguez is 3-0 and Canning is 0-3. I lean toward Baltimore's starter here, as Rodriguez is sporting a sharp 3.39 SIERA right now. Additionally, he has made it past the fifth frame in all four starts this season. That should give us a solid base for this F5 market.

On offense, the Orioles have been far superior compared to the Halos. Baltimore is currently operating with the American League's top team OPS (.781). For LAA, their collective OPS (.674) lands them 21st in MLB. When looking at numberFire's power rankings, the O's (1.56 nERD) are considerably ahead of the Angels (0.20 nERD) there, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.