MLB Betting Picks for Monday 5/6/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 (-102)

To start the baseball week, the San Diego Padres (18-19) are in the Windy City to tangle with the Chicago Cubs (21-14).

These respective National League sides have already met once this year, wherein the Friars took two of three games at Petco Park. That series -- which took place at the beginning of April -- showcased three contests with an average combined total of 11.67 runs per game. That entices me to make an over wager (-102 odds) on Monday's set total of 7.5 runs.

We'll see quality pitching in this bid at Wrigley Field, as starters Yu Darvish and Justin Steele are scheduled for the opener. Darvish currently shows a 4.18 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), but his 3.14 BB/9 is higher than usual. For Steele, he is making his first MLB start since returning from a hamstring injury; he's tossed just 4.2 innings in 2024.

San Diego and Chicago both are doing relatively well at the plate this season. The Padres boast MLB's sixth-best OPS at .736 while the Cubbies rank 14th (.708) in the same metric. From there, the Friars have scored 5.05 runs per game with Chicago close behind at 4.8 runs per game.

My preference for an over play is supported by the projections at numberFire. Their model presents a narrow winning score for Chicago in this game, 4.43-4.40 -- 8.87 total runs. numberFire gives the over a 60.7% chance to hit.

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET

Mets Moneyline (+104)

Busch Stadium will play host to an intriguing clash within the Senior Circuit. Set for a three-game series, the New York Mets (16-18) and St. Louis Cardinals (15-19) are both looking to string together more consistent play.

Given FanDuel Sportsbook's odds for this contest, I see value on New York to win outright (+104 odds). When we compare that plus-money listing to numberFire's MLB game projections, we see that the Mets are predicted (51%) to win on the road this evening by a score of 4.23-3.94. Is there enough here to have confidence in that?

The probable pitchers for Monday in downtown St. Louis are Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson. Manaea, a southpaw, has been strong throughout his first season in the Big Apple, showing 9.20 strikeouts per nine innings with only 0.31 home runs allowed per nine. Gibson has also been solid behind a 4.41 SIERA, but he has surrendered a 41.7% Statcast hard-hit rate; he'll need to tread lightly against a powerful Metropolitan lineup.

New York and St. Louis start this series with each having lost four of their past five games. Still, I have more trust in Manaea and the Mets' lineup. In 2024, the Mets are yielding a collective .307 wOBA. That is so-so, but the Red Birds are much further down in this category. The Cards currently have a .282 wOBA, which is the second-worst rate in the N.L.

To compound struggles for "The Lou," the Cardinals have looked lost versus left-handed pitching this year; St. Louis sports a .180 BA and .569 OPS against lefties. With that, I am on the Mets outright tonight.

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Under 8.5 Runs (-106)

Here is a meeting that pits together teams from opposite ends of numberFire's MLB power rankings.

After sweeping the Atlanta Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers (23-13/2.51 nERD) are surely playing with unrivaled confidence. For the Dodgers' next opponent, they'll host the reeling Miami Marlins (10-26/-1.57 nERD) over three games at Chavez Ravine.

Los Angeles has been hitting the cover off the baseball, but I think Monday evening's conditions at Dodger Stadium could bring the scoring down. Since L.A. is playing a Marlins team that produces just 3.81 runs per game, I feel good about under 8.5 runs (-106 odds) in Southern California.

Notoriously, Dodger Stadium has good carry during day games throughout the Summer, but night games -- especially contests with swirling winds like what is forecasted to be the case on Monday -- in the Spring can be a bit tougher on hitters.

Walker Buehler will be making his first MLB start since June of 2022. Now that Buehler is healthy, L.A. has major expectations for the right-handed fireballer, and Buehler could be in a favorable spot taking on Miami. The Marlins have been inefficient at the plate, drawing walks at just a 6.9% rate. With not many threats in Miami's lineup, I like Buehler to pitch well in his 2024 debut.

Roddery Munoz will toe the rubber for the Fish on Monday, inheriting the exorbitant task of facing Los Angeles' many sluggers. Munoz may be up to the challenge. He carries a 2.65 SIERA over two starts in 2024. Additionally, Munoz' current strikeout clip of 11.45 K/9 is electric, albeit over a small sample.

I respect the Dodgers' lineup completely, but I see nine combined runs being too lofty on a chilly night at Chavez Ravine. Also, the Marlins recently lost one of their best players -- two-time N.L. batting champion Luis Arraez was just traded to San Diego. Basically, I would not doubt if the Dodgers win by a score of 6-0 (or something in that neighborhood).

Try FanDuel’s Parlay Boost Builder on May 6th—eligible on all sports! Build a 3+ leg parlay, apply your Boost Builder, and get a 15% Profit Boost applied to your wager — with 10% added for each additional leg! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.