MLB

MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/1/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/1/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Red Sox -1.5 (+114)

Happy April Fools' Day! I'd like to preface by stating you'll find no jokes here. The following plays are serious, through and through. Let us head out to Northern California, where the Oakland Athletics will host the Boston Red Sox for the second regular-season series of 2024.

Boston is traveling down from the Emerald City after splitting a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners, scoring 14 total runs. For the Athletics, they just had what might be their final Opening Day in Alameda County, losing three of four games to the Cleveland Guardians in the process. Overall, the A's have been outscored 29 to 11 so far.

For Monday evening, the projected starters in Oakland are righties Tanner Houck and Joe Boyle. In 2023, Boyle made his Major-league debut, showing just three starts (16 IP) and a 4.37 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Houck produced a 4.33 SIERA last year. Also, the Red Sox hurler has approximately 200 more innings of experience compared to Boyle.

It is early, but the Athletics appear as if they will be struggling for the year's entirety. Ownership's actions have sent the A's fan base into abstaining from attending home games. With no real home-field advantage for Oakland, expect to see more Red Sox fans in the stands tonight.

When going against the run line, the Athletics are 1-3 this season while Boston has gone 4-0. Red Sox sluggers Rafael Devers (1.000 OPS) and Tyler O'Neill (1.538 OPS) have gotten off to hot starts at the plate. Behind that, I love the BoSox's run-line at these +114 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Diamondbacks (+130)

Out in the desert, the New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks very well could be the best series of this week's early portion.

For folks my age, this matchup in Phoenix always brings back memories of the 2001 World Series. As it is now, it is not terribly unlikely that we see D-Backs vs. Yanks in this year's Fall Classic. At FanDuel Sportsbook, both teams are within the top-15 for shortest odds to win the World Series.

Prior to Monday's slate, Arizona and New York have combined for a 7-1 record out of the gate. The D-Backs knocked around the Colorado Rockies for a few days while the Bombers thrived on comeback efforts, sweeping the Houston Astros on the road. At this point, I believe Arizona can hand the Yankees their initial loss of the 2024 campaign. On Monday, the Diamondbacks' F5 (first-five innings) result listing shows +130 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. I'll *snake* bite on that, especially with numberFire giving Arizona a 60% chance at victory to start the week.

Prior to the fourth inning, New York has scored a total of just two runs this season. For Arizona, that number is much higher at 24 total runs. When we expand to five completed innings, the D-Backs show 7.0 runs per game while the Yankees are averaging 1.75 runs.

At Chase Field, the projected starting pitchers are Ryne Nelson for the home side and Luis Gil for the bunch from the Bronx; neither arm has a wealth of MLB experience. With that, I am confident staying on trend. In the three-way market, I like for Arizona to be winning at home after five completed frames.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

As one of baseball's oldest rivalries, the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers have been beefing on the diamond pretty much since the Industrial Revolution. Of course, both franchises have built respective brands out in California since then, but the animosity is alive and well to this very moment.

Monday evening will be the first Giants-Dodgers clash of the 2024 campaign. Being that Los Angeles commenced the season in South Korea, the "Boys in Blue" have two more games under their belt compared to their orange foes from the north.

San Francisco will make the short drive up Interstate 5 to Dodger Stadium after splitting a weekend series at the San Diego Padres. The Giants proved that their new starting lineup will be formidable, as newcomers Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee combined for 10 RBI through four contests. Overall, S.F. produced 6.25 runs per game in San Diego.

With that in mind, and considering the many superstars in Los Angeles' lineup, over 8.5 runs (-122 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) at Chavez Ravine seems like Monday's wisest play. The probable pitchers in this bid are Keaton Winn and James Paxton. Keaton will be making just his sixth start since entering the Majors while the southpaw Paxton is past his throwing prime (now age 35).

Simply, names like Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are already crushing the ball. The Dodgers have combined for 10 home runs (most in MLB), and the Giants look improved on offense, yielding a .789 team OPS so far.

For me, all signs point toward the over at Dodger Stadium on Monday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.