MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/26/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/26/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, 7:40 p.m. ET

Rays -1.5 (-137)

For Friday, we'll get things started on the Southside. Airing on Apple TV+, the Chicago White Sox (3-22) are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays (13-13) in an American League clash.

Largely, the White Sox have been the very worst team in Major League Baseball. The power rankings at numberFire concur with that sentiment as Chicago (-2.87 nERD) is listed dead last. Additionally, their winning percentage (.120) and overall team OPS (.558) are also both cellar marks.

Across the diamond, the Rays are not off to their hottest start, but they've been more formidable when compared to the ChiSox. Tampa Bay is currently sporting a .663 team OPS while having scored 3.96 runs per game. That is nothing electric, but the White Sox have produced just 2.24 runs per game in 2024.

The projected starters on the mound for Friday at Guaranteed Rate Field are Zach Eflin and Chris Flexen. Eflin has been efficient, posting a 3.30 skill-interactive ERA both this season and last. Meanwhile, Flexen is currently tagged with an 0-3 record, having allowed 14 earned runs through only 19.2 innings pitched.

To commence the weekend, I like the Rays to win by two or more runs on the road. The Southsiders have been vulnerable against the run line this season, yielding a 9-16 record in that category. In this instance, I am confident in leaning on Eflin and the Rays.

Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 (-122)

The Cincinnati Reds (14-11) and Texas Rangers (13-13) should provide an exciting interleague series out in Arlington. As defending world champions, the Rangers have endured a sluggish start in 2024. As for the Reds, they are proving to be a side to monitor.

With two strong offenses playing in a hitter's venue (Globe Life Field has a 104 Park Factor score, per Baseball Savant), I like over 8.5 runs (-122 odds). Cincinnati is geared behind a youthful and potent lineup, boasting a scoring clip of 5.08 runs per game in 2024. Texas' offense has been up and down, but they are also a top-10 scoring club, showing 4.69 runs per game.

The probable pitchers in this series opener are fellow righties Graham Ashcraft and Nathan Eovaldi. Ashcroft has a Statcast hard-hit rate of 45.6% currently, which could be dangerous against the Rangers' free-swinging batting order. Eovaldi (4.03 SIERA) has been solid in 2024, but he'll have a tough test taking on Cincy sluggers like Elly De La Cruz (1.051 OPS) and Spencer Steer (career-best .368 wOBA) -- among others.

With Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager, Texas has their share of prolific hitters as well. Collectively, numberFire's MLB game projections estimate that Reds-Rangers will produce a total of 9.88 runs on Friday. Per their model, that translates to a 61.71% winning likelihood for over 8.5.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 (-118)

Here we see a rematch of the 2022 NLCS. Coming down from Coors Field's high elevation, the San Diego Padres (14-14) will return to Southern California to host the Philadelphia Phillies (16-10). Simply, this should be a contentious series in the Gaslamp Quarter.

Petco Park is largely considered a pitcher's venue, but we see that baked into the approachable total of 7.5 runs. Considering how well these two sides are hitting in 2024, I am eager to play the over (-118 odds) in this contest as well.

In the current campaign, San Diego has scored the third-most runs (139) of any team. On the other side, Philadelphia is sporting an impressive .713 team OPS. I think there is enough combined pop here to take down the low total.

Toeing the rubber in this contest will be Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove. These are two quality arms, but Nola has been a bit better than Musgrove. The San Diego County native is labeled with a 4.61 SIERA to this point. For Nola, he's allowed 12 runs through 31.1 IP.

With many powerful bats featured in this matchup a la Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber and Fernando Tatis Jr. (to name only a few), I am leaning on the respective offenses. Let's look for eight or more total runs in downtown San Diego.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.