MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/26/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Marcell Ozuna to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

Heading into Sunday afternoon's matchup in ideal form with a .291 expected average, 60% hard hit rate, and eight extra-base hits in his last 35 plate appearances, Atlanta's veteran slugger should continue scorching the ball in Pittsburgh against Martin Perez.

While Perez has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground during his 13-year career, Ozuna presents plenty of trouble versus Perez's profile with a 42.0% fly-ball percentage to counter this tendency, a career resume of mashing left-handed pitching (.355 wOBA, 125 wRC+) and an ability to exploit his main weakness (.345 wOBA, 4.70 xFIP, 12.4% home run to fly-ball ratio).

Expect Ozuna to continue his recent hot streak versus a low strikeout pitcher (16.1% career rate) he has produced a .389 expected average against.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Houston Astros Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Bases (-145)

After scoring just eight times in their last three games, the Astros are expected to get on track with an appetizing 5.08 expected run total against former KBO star Aaron Brooks.

Through 144 career innings as a starter, Brooks profiles as a subpar pitcher we love to bet against, recording a worrisome 5.19 xFIP, 15.5% K-rate, and a generous 15.2% home run to fly-ball ratio while also allowing alarming production and hard contact (37%) to left-handed bats (.364 wOBA, 18.2% home run to fly-ball ratio).

When evaluating Brooks' struggles in the Major Leagues and his matchup versus six Houston hitters with wOBAs ranging from .324 to .400, there should be high expectations for the Astros to get at least five runs on the board especially with the recent red-hot form displayed by Yordan Alvarez in his last 32 plate appearances (.294 expected average, 55% hard hit rate, five extra bases).

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte to Record 2+ Bases (-145)

While Arizona's second baseman has been hitless in his last two contests, Marte should bounce back at home in a big way in a matchup versus left-hander Ryan Weathers.

There are several data points supporting a potential big performance in Arizona including Marte's historical success against southpaws throughout his career including an outstanding .374 wOBA and a wRC+ rating standing 36% above average, positive regression in his batted ball metrics when comparing the wide gap between Marte's .321 expected average to his actual .237 mark in his last 38 at-bats, and Weathers' career struggles against the opposing side of the plate (5.05 xFIP, .363 wOBA).

With a change in luck likely to occur on Sunday afternoon especially versus a below-average lefty, expect Marte to cash in even at an implied 59.1% percentage.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.