MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/7/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 Runline (-144)

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+130)

In a battle between American East rivals, the Blue Jays present intriguing value as a road underdog on Sunday afternoon.

Taking the mound for Toronto, Bowden Francis' basic metrics look ugly after he was battered for seven runs in his first MLB start but there are reasons to believe the 27-year old may have an edge over New York's starter Luis Gil when comparing his career 3.89 xFIP and 26.1% K-rate with Gil's profile (4.63 xFIP in eight career starts, 14.5% walk rate).

When considering Toronto's sneaky pitching advantage and superior offensive metrics over New York (6.7% team barrel rate versus 5.3 / (expected .369 wOBA versus .367), there should be plenty of optimism towards their 58.8% win probability created by numberFire's models and the Blue Jays' chances of pulling off an upset.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

Matt Olson to Record 2+ Bases (-105)

Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-148)

Coming into today's game in impressive form with a .299 expected average and a 8.7% barrel rate, Atlanta's first baseman has an optimal spot to record his third straight game with an extra base hit versus Ryne Nelson and his below-average metrics including a 5.32 career xFIP as a starter and horrid splits against left-handed bats (5.72 xFIP, .359 wOBA).

With Nelson likely heading towards a rough outing against Matt Olson and four other lefty hitters, MLB's seventh ranked offense has a prime spot to produce a big number with numberFire's models expecting Atlanta to reach 5.74 runs.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-140)

Rounding out Sunday's slate with an intense rivalry, the Rangers are attempting to complete a sweep in a matchup versus Ronel Blanco.

While most would not bet against a pitcher with a no hitter on his resume, Blanco is likely heading towards some regression when examining his 4.93 xFIP as a starter and an unsustainable 100% left on-base percentage this season.

With potential trouble looming around the corner, numberFire's models project the Rangers to give Blanco some problems at Globe Life Field with an appetizing 5.75 expected run total and a 61.8% probability to win today's contest.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.