MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/28/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/28/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (+100)
Adolis Garcia to Record 2+ Bases (-110)

Mired in a recent offensive slump in their last three games, the Rangers have a potential bounce back spot on Sunday afternoon with a team total at 5.40 expected runs versus Cincinnati left-hander Andrew Abbott.

In the beginning of what could be seen as a successful start to his second MLB season with a 2.60 ERA through five appearances, Abbott could experience a rough dose of reality in Texas when examining several of his advanced metrics including a poor 5.24 xFIP, a declining 17.7% K-rate, and a below-average 6.6% swinging strike percentage.

With several negative data points predicting a rough outing is upcoming against MLB's 11th ranked team in weighted runs created plus (5% above average), the defending World Series champs present us several opportunities to cash in against Abbott's regression and his top weakness versus right-handed bats (.338 career wOBA, 4.97 xFIP, 10.9% home run to fly-ball ratio) with a main focus on their team total and Adolis Garcia's props when observing his gaudy batted ball form and ability to hit for power. (.277 expected average, 16.0% barrel rate)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-138)

Riding high with a three game winning streak, the Mariners have great opportunity to prolong their recent success in Seattle.

Taking the hill for the current American West division leaders, Logan Gilbert gives his team an immediate advantage when comparing his career metrics (3.83 xFIP, 3.78 SIERA) with Brandon Pfaadt's profile (4.31 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA) while Seattle's bullpen also ranks higher in xFIP (11th versus 21st) and Wins Above Replacement (15th versus 22nd).

With complete superiority in the pitching department whether it's with Gilbert or their secondary arms, the Mariners should be considered the better team on Sunday and an optimal favorite with an appetizing 4.7% edge between numberFire's 62.6% win probability and Seattle's 57.9% implied percentage.

Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers to Record 2+ Bases (-150)

In a matchup versus Hayden Wesneski. Boston's star third baseman has an ideal spot to mash especially against a right-hander who overall profiles as below-average arm (4.13 career xFIP) and often struggles versus the left side of the plate (4.69 xFIP, 20.7% home run to fly-ball ratio, 36.5% hard hit percentage).

When considering Wesneski's main weakness and Devers' recent hot form in his last 18 at-bats including a .357 expected average and a 55% hard hit rate, we are getting the perfect situation for the Red Sox's slugger to have a big night at the plate and provide return even an implied 60% percentage.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.