MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 7/6/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 7/6/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs

Angels Moneyline (+122)

If today isn't the day the Los Angeles Angels get off the schneid, it could be a while. Los Angeles has a tremendous opportunity to face Kyle Hendricks while also turning to their best arm, Tyler Anderson, on the same day.

Hendricks might not even be able to take advantage of favorable wind at Wrigley. The sinkerballer is permitting 1.91 HR/9 despite excellent flyball (32.0%) and hard-hit (31.4%) rates allowed. When his mistakes are getting hit, they're getting crushed, which has wrapped into an ugly 4.92 expected ERA (xERA).

Anderson has similar issues, but his consequences (1.04 HR/9) have been far less severe. Anderson's hefty flyball rate (45.5%) will benefit from the wind, though. It's not ideal that Anderson's 4.97 xERA is the Angels' best chance, but it does stand that way at present.

The biggest difference between these two teams is the respective offenses. L.A. has a competitive .735 OPS against righties in the past 30 days (11th in MLB), and Chicago's .659 OPS against lefties in the same period is seventh-worst in baseball.

That's a huge split advantage for the visitors that could help them break an ugly stretch where they've been outscored 28-11 in five straight losses.

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

Mets -1.5 (+120)
Francisco Lindor 2+ Total Bases (-125)

Friday wasn't the New York Mets' day. They lost 14-2, but expect a bounce back by the Allegheny on Saturday. They've got a huge split advantage as southpaws David Peterson and Bailey Falter will duel.

"Duel" probably isn't the right word with how ineffective both have been. Peterson's ugly 5.83 xERA, .303 expected batting average (xBA), and 44.3% hard-hit rate allowed have been met by Falter's marks: a 4.85 xERA, .273 xBA, and 41.0% hard-hit rate allowed. The latter's larger sample (88.1 innings to 33.1 for Peterson) is probably the only effective difference.

With that the case, the Mets destroy lefties, and the Pittsburgh Pirates do not. New York's .845 OPS against them in the past month is 3rd-best in baseball, and you'll scroll a while to find the Buccos' .592 OPS in the same parameters (29th in MLB).

Especially when New York's bullpen (3.78 xFIP in last 30) outperformed Pittsburgh's (4.00), I feel comfortable taking them to win by multiple runs as the Pirates did Friday.

One of the Metropolitans' lefty killers is Francisco Lindor, who is looking to rebound after an 0-for-4 day yesterday on the switch-hitter's better side of the plate. He's posted a lethal 157 wRC+, .297 ISO, and 40.0% hard-hit rate against them in the past month.

Our daily MLB projections have Lindor pegged for 2.22 median total bases on Saturday.

Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins

Garrett Crochet 9+ Strikeouts (+146)

You could argue no pitcher at the moment is more effective than Garrett Crochet at present, and this is a great matchup for him.

Crochet recorded 9.3 Ks per outing in June, and his underlying peripherals don't suggest those numbers are going anywhere any time soon. The 25-year-old's chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate are all 83rd percentile or better across MLB -- the latter two ranking 90th percentile or better. The only team that struck out fewer than eight times against him last month was the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Chicago White Sox are visiting the Miami Marlins this weekend, and I've got bad news for Marlins fans after getting blanked yesterday by righty Drew Thorpe in 6.1 innings. They are worse against southpaws. Miami's 73 wRC+ and 24.8% strikeout rate in the past 30 days are both bottom-five marks across baseball.

Expect the left-hander to encroach double-digit punchies today -- especially getting an upgrade to a pitcher's park.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-118)

It's been an odd week for the Dodgers, who have used some late-inning heroics to escape five straight Ls. Tonight's game might be a total changeup to the 13.2 total runs per game in this stretch.

Both of these bullpens are a concern, ranking bottom 10 in xFIP over the past 30 days. So, I don't want to mess with a full-game under, but both starters should have a decent outing in this one.

The Milwaukee Brewers are well-positioned for a quiet first five with ace Freddy Peralta up their sleeve. Peralta's 3.48 xERA, 2.18 xBA, and 30.9% strikeout rate are equal parts outstanding and dominant. Injuries to L.A.'s lineup have resulted in a soft bottom five of the order starting with Andy Pages; they're just not as menacing right this second.

On the other side, Milwaukee's patented issues with lefties should help James Paxton navigate waters smoothly. Paxton's 4.82 xERA is slowly drawing even with the actual ERA (4.28), and his 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed is scary, but the Brew Crew have us covered. They've posted an ugly .671 OPS (eighth-worst in MLB) against southpaws in the past 30 days.

This hasn't cashed in any of the Dodgers' last five games, but these splits suggest some return to normalcy.

Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies

Royals -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-122)
Hunter Renfroe 2+ Total Bases (-130)

Godspeed to anyone betting the full-game markets in this one. We saw the Colorado Rockies pull ahead late on Friday, and these two clubs both have bottom-five bullpens (by xFIP) in the past 30 days now trading blows at Coors Field. Yikes.

However, we can feel good that the Kansas City Royals are ahead after five here with a huge talent advantage on the mound. They're sending out Seth Lugo, and the journeyman has laid down a modest 3.72 xERA, 38.8% hard-hit rate allowed, and miniscule 5.8% walk rate this season. Keeping ducks off the pond is vital at Coors.

The Rockies have just an 84 wRC+ against righties in the past 30 days, so this is a positive matchup for him. Colorado's Austin Gomber will have the same luxury; the Royals' 66 wRC+ against lefties in the past month isn't special, either. Gomber has just been far worse.

Lugo won't have to be perfect to win the first five when Gomber has ceded at least three earned runs in each of his last six starts. He just coughed up four to Milwaukee, who I mentioned struggles with lefties just as K.C. does. Gomber's 4.83 xERA leaves plenty to chance behind a tiny strikeout rate (16.1%).

Kansas City has bats that we should expect to beat lefties moving forward, too. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are obvious, but Hunter Renfroe's career .843 OPS and massive .255 ISO against lefties could come to life tonight against Gomber. He's projected to be the Royals' fifth batter.

We've got Renfroe projected at 1.96 median total bases tonight, and there's a dip to buy after a 2-for-14 stretch in July thus far when all four starters faced have been right-handers.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.