MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/6/23

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/6/23

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Natonals

Philadelphia Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Bases (+100)
Kyle Schwarber to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

In a favorable matchup versus Washington's right-hander Jake Irvin and his career 5.06 xFIP, Philadelphia has a great offensive spot to exceed their betting mark with numberFire's models expecting the "Fightin Phils" to score 5.57 runs on Saturday afternoon.

When examining Irvin's below-average profile including a glaring weakness versus the opposing side of the plate (.377 wOBA, 5.52 xFIP), Philadelphia's top lefty power bats are ideal targets to record two or more bases with Bryce Harper rounding into form with a .301 expected average and a 43% hard hit rate in his last 16 appearances and Kyle Schwarber raking a red-hot bat with for a 10.5% barrel rate and a .340 expected average this season.

Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Mountcastle to Record 2+ Bases (-125)
Baltimore Orioles over 4.5 Runs (-115)

After breaking out of his recent hitless streak on Friday night, Baltimore's slugging first baseman has an appetizing opportunity to display his special ability to mash left-handed pitching (career 131 weighted Runs Created Plus rating / .510 slugging percentage) versus southpaw Bailey Falter and his troubling splits against right-handed bats (4.47 xFIP, 18.9%).

While Mountcastle is our top option to record a potential extra base hit with a team-leading 18.2% barrel rate this season, MLB's ninth ranked offense should also collectively feast on Falter in Pittsburgh with seven right-handed bats in today's lineup and an expected team total at 5.12 runs.

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-144)

Despite last night's heart breaking loss in Coors Field, the Rays are a prime spot to rebound versus baseball's worst ranked team with a horrid -31 run differential.

While Tampa Bay has struggled in all areas compared to last season, they still hold an advantage on the mound when comparing their 4.78 team xFIP to Colorado's league worst 5.13 mark while also ranking as a much better defensive club (10th versus 28th).

With two distinct edges over the Rockies, numberFire's models heavily favor the road team in today's matchup, rating Tampa Bay's moneyline as a four star play with an eye-popping 13.3% gap between the Rays' 72.3% winning probability and their 58.0% implied percentage.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.