MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/13/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/13/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs (-130)

In a mouth-watering opportunity against Colorado's Dakota Hudson, the Blue Jays are expected to reach their team total with numberFire's models projecting Toronto to score 5.30 runs.

There are several reasons to believe Toronto's projection can come to fruition when analyzing a noticeable gap over two runs between Hudsons's 4.64 xFIP and his 2.38 Earned Run Average and an overall below-average profile including a 7.5% swinging strike percentage and a 12.8% K-rate.

In addition to today's ideal matchup against Hudson, there should be even more opportunities for the Blue Jays to record runs against a horrible Rockies' bullpen that currently ranks 28th overall with a 5.10 xFIP and 26th in Wins Above Replacement with a negative 0.3 mark.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Jose Altuve to Record 2+ Bases (-105)

Heading into Saturday afternoon raking a hot bat with a .288 expected average and a 12.5% barrel rate, Houston's star second baseman has a high probability to mash versus left-hander Andrew Heaney.

While we always want to see ideal recent form when targeting player props, there are several additional data points to support Altuve when analyzing his proven track record to hit southpaws throughout his career (46% above average rating in weighted Runs Created Plus, .506 slugging percentage) and his individual success against Heaney including six extra bases in 41 career at-bats.

With several positive indicators towards a big performance at the plate, expect the Astros' leadoff hitter to provide return in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners

Cubs Alternative Over 3.5 Runs (-158)
Christopher Morel to Record 2+ Bases (+125)

Despite Chicago's recent inability to score runs, the Cubs have a perfect spot to break out of their offensive slump against right-hander Emerson Hancock and his worrisome 5.05 xFIP in five career starts.

Through 20.2 innings pitching at baseball's top level, Hancock profiles as a pitcher we can feel confident targeting, recording a below-average 14.0% K-rate and a 7.4% swinging strike percentage while also allowing massive production to right-handed bats including an eye-popping 26.7% home run to fly-ball ratio and a .444 wOBA.

With Chicago's offense in such a great spot to produce, tonight's matchup gives us a perfect opportunity to target Christopher Morel's props and his impressive power especially when examining his .322 expected average and 14.3% barrel rate this season and Hancock's glaring reverse splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.