MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Monday 5/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds Over 4.5 Total Runs (-120)

Spencer Steer to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

The Cincinnati Reds are a team poised for a solid scoring output on Monday with Lance Lynn slated to start for the St. Louis Cardinals. Lynn is in the 38th percentile in xERA (4.19) and 18th percentile in barrel rate (9.8%) while logging the lowest strikeout rate (21.4%) and swinging-strike rate (10.0%) of his career since 2017.

Across his last four starts, Lynn has given up four earned runs in three of them -- with two of them being road contests. Given Lynn's woes on the bump this season, we'll take Cincy to plate five-plus runs at home in a hitter-friendly environment.

Winds are blowing out to left at Great American Ball Park, so that could favor the right-handed bats of the Reds against Lynn and the bullpen of the Cardinals. Taking that into consideration, we'll also back Spencer Steer to tally two-plus bases for the Reds.

Steer is performing better versus right-handed pitchers in 2024, producing a .353 wOBA, .430 SLG, and 125 wRC+, compared to a .308 wOBA, .368 SLG, and 95 wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers. Following a dry spell at the plate, Steer has notched multiple bases in four of his last five games -- including two doubles and two homers.

With Steer performing well in recent outings, it's worth noting he has +360 odds to hit a home run.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants

Thairo Estrada to Record a Run (+120)

Taijuan Walker has been struggling on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies to begin the campaign, making him a starter we want to target each time he takes the ball. Besides registering a dismal 52.4% flyball rate and 7.3% swinging-strike rate, Walker is ranked in the fifth percentile or worse in xERA (6.41), average exit velocity (91.6 MPH), whiff rate (16.5%), and barrel rate (17.1%).

Near the top of the order for the San Francisco Giants, Thairo Estrada is someone we can target for props on Monday. Estrada is posting a .309 wOBA and .435 SLG against right-handed pitching, and he has at least one run scored in nine of his last 10 appearances.

Meanwhile, Walker is permitting a .350 wOBA, .468 SLG, 5.03 xFIP, and 2.08 HR/9 versus right-handed hitters this year. Being that San Francisco has scored four-plus runs in nine of their last 10 contests, taking Estrada to cross home plate has decent value in Monday's Phillies-Giants showdown.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres -1.5 (+118)

Entering Monday's clash between the Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres, the Padres have a decent advantage on the bump with Michael King expected to make his 12th start of the campaign. King is sporting a formidable 3.93 SIERA and his 3.84 xFIP -- compared to his 4.86 FIP -- suggests he's been a bit unlucky thus far.

Despite King's up-and-down start to the year, this is a matchup he can take advantage of. The Marlins have been woeful against right-handed pitching, recording the fourth-lowest wOBA (.293) and fifth-lowest wRC+ (89) in that split.

On the other hand, Miami is trotting out Trevor Rogers, who will make his 11th start of the season. Rogers is sitting in the 14th percentile in xERA (5.29), seventh percentile in xBA (.295), fourth percentile in average exit velocity (91.8 MPH), and eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (47.8%). The left-handed starter for the Marlins has surrendered three-plus earned runs in five of his last six starts.

Lastly, the Marlins are 22-32 against the spread (ATS) to begin the year while the Padres are an even 28-28 ATS.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.