MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 9/13/23: Hunter Brown Owns Oakland

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Astros -1.5 (-126)

We kick things off with one of my favorite plays in a while -- the Houston Astros to cover 1.5 runs against the Oakland Athletics.

This is such an intriguing bet for two reasons.

Firstly, Hunter Brown owns the A's. The righty has had an up-and-down rookie season, sporting a solid 3.70 SIERA and 26.9% strikeout rate but simultaneously posting an ugly 4.78 ERA. However, he's already made three starts against Oakland -- not a huge sample size but enough where we can at least begin to look for trends.

That trend is quality starts. Hunter Brown is a quality start machine against Oakland. In 19 innings against them, Brown has allowed just 5 runs and 15 hits, picking up 3 quality starts in as many chances while striking out 23.

The only caveat is that Houston has only covered 1.5 runs against them in one of those three games.

But, that brings me to the other reason I like this play; the Astros are mashing right now

They've come to life over the last month, averaging the second-most runs per game (6.18) since August 13th. They've posted the second-highest wOBA (.367) and highest wRC+ (135) over that span and shouldn't have any issues with the opposing pitcher Paul Blackburn.

Blackburn held them to just a single run in 5.1 innings back in July but comes in with an ugly 4.34 SIERA. The Astros have really turned it on against righties since that 4-1 loss to Oakland on July 22nd, ranking fifth in wOBA (.349) and tying for third in wRC+ (123) in that split since that loss.

So, while Houston dropped both of the first two games, I like them to come out firing and salvage the series at home against baseball's worst team.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 9 (-122)

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off and the total is only set at 9 runs.

Count me in for the over.

Sure, Spencer Strider may be starting for the visiting Atlanta Braves, but don't let the name scare you off. Yes, Strider possesses some of, if not the best, strikeout stuff on the planet. His 37.8% strikeout rate and 34.2% called + swinging strike rate (CSW) lead the league by a considerable margin.

However, for as good a strikeout pitcher as Strider is, he's allowed more than his fair share of runs. Across his last two outings, Strider has given up 10 earned runs in 8.2 innings of work. He only lasted 2.2 innings in his most recent start before the St. Louis Cardinals chased him out with 6 runs. That effort bumped his ERA up to 3.83. While his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) still sits at a league-leading 2.81, it's not like he's been unhittable.

Things don't get any easier for him tonight since the Philadelphia Phillies have caught fire over the second half of the year. Since the break, Philly has averaged the fifth-most runs per game (5.57) and compiled the fourth-highest wOBA (.351). They've really brought the power against righties over that span, ranking second with a .215 ISO.

On the opposite side, it doesn't really matter who's pitching; Atlanta is going to score.

Atlanta leads the league in a number of offensive categories, and they've only gotten better over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Braves have scored the most runs per game (6.23) and posted the highest wOBA (.368) and ISO (.235). No one, especially not Cristopher Sanchez, is slowing them down.

While Sanchez actually boasts a pretty stellar 3.45 SIERA, he's gotten by mostly with ground balls, which he forces at a 58.6% clip. He sits in the bottom half of the league in both barrel rate (8.2%) and hard-hit rate (39.8%), and he'll be hard-pressed to slow down baseball's best lineup against left-handed pitchers. In that split, the Braves have compiled an absurd .375 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 135 wRC+ -- all of which are, by far, the league's best marks.

With the NL East rivals combining for at least 12 runs in each of the series' previous three games, we're getting a ton of value here -- even with Strider on the bump.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 8.5 (-115)

We close things out on the West Coast where I'm all over the under in tonight's San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers.

Both teams boast stellar lineups full of All-Star caliber players, and it's not like either team is struggling to hit right now, either. Over the last month, both teams rank inside the top 12 in wOBA and wRC+ while the Dodgers have averaged the fifth-most runs per game (5.82).

No, this has nothing to do with the offenses. It has everything to do with the pitchers.

To be blunt, these guys absolutely shove.

Let's start with Blake Snell. The lefty is the odds-on favorite (-140) to win the NL Cy Young this season for a reason. Snell's been masterful this season, posting the second-lowest ERA (2.52), allowing the lowest batting average (.190), and posting the fourth-highest strikeout rate (31.1%) in baseball. His swing-and-miss stuff has been phenomenal, generating the second-highest swinging strike rate (15.1%) and a 97th-percentile whiff rate (36.7%). Snell hasn't given up more than three runs in an outing since May, and I don't expect that to change tonight against a Dodgers team he's limited to 7 runs across three starts this season.

That puts most of the pressure on Dodgers starter Ryan Pepiot tonight. Pepiot doesn't have a large sample (only 21 innings) but has looked downright dominant. He's only allowed 9 hits and 2 runs through his first four starts, striking out 17 in the process. The 26-year-old is coming off an absolute stellar, 7-inning, one-hit shutout against the Miami Marlins and carries a ton of positive momentum into tonight.

This also happens to be one of the numberFire model's favorite wagers, garnering a two-star rating.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.