MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 9/28/23: Too Low of a Total in Baltimore

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Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Over 7.5 (-110)

Despite a small slate, there are still two games that really stick out with value tonight, starting with the Boston Red Sox-Baltimore Orioles going over 7.5 runs. Despite a pair of capable arms on the mound, 7.5 is a bit too low for my liking, especially given Baltimore's strong lefty splits.

Since the All-Star break, Baltimore ranks 11th in wOBA (.337), 8th in ISO (.182), and 9th in wRC+ (116) against left-handed pitchers. In general, Baltimore's offense has been remarkably consistent over the second half of the season as they rank 7th with 5.17 runs per game. They had no trouble putting up runs on the Red Sox the last these AL East rivals squared off, either. In a three-game set earlier this month, the Orioles scored 27 runs across three games.

12 of those runs came in the game they faced tonight's starter, Chris Sale. Baltimore roughed Sale up for 6 hits and 7 runs and forced him out of the game after just 4.0 innings of work. Part of me leans toward that being an anomaly for Sale. He's been pretty sharp in limited action this season, pitching to a stellar 3.43 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and a 33.7% hard-hit rate while registering a 30.1% strikeout rate. Of his 19 starts, Sale has only given up three-plus runs five times.

Yet, three of those came in his only three starts against Baltimore. In 12 innings against the Orioles this season, Sale has given up 22 hits and 19 runs while striking out just 11.

Assuming Baltimore has his number again tonight, we just need a little bit of run production from Boston for this small total to go over.

That may be easier said than done, however, as Boston has taken a step back against righties of late. Across their last month of games, the Red Sox rank 28th in wRC+ (79), 27th in wOBA (.295), and 25th in ISO (.147).

Tonight they'll square off with righty Dean Kremer. Kremer has been up-and-down this season and enters tonight with a 4.52 SIERA, a 41.0% hard-hit rate, and a 9.1% barrel rate. While those aren't encouraging numbers, he's actually out-pitched his expected numbers by a fair margin. Kremer's batting average (.258) and wOBA (.323) allowed are both notably lower than his expected batting average (.272) and expected wOBA (.345) allowed.

Kremer didn't find much success in his prior two starts against Boston. While both came much earlier in the season, the Red Sox roughed him up for 13 hits, 9 runs, and 4 home runs across just 8.2 innings of work.

Both offenses have found a lot of success against the opposing pitcher this season, and I'm expecting that to continue tonight. With a total set at just 7.5 runs, there's a lot of value in the over tonight in Baltimore.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Mets +1.5 (-142)

The only other matchup that really sticks out tonight is in Queens, where I like the home New York Mets to cover +1.5 against the visiting Miami Marlins.

This one is a head-scratcher to me. Sure, the Marlins are fighting for a playoff spot and the Mets have long been eliminated from postseason contention, but there isn't a big difference between these two NL East foes in a head-to-head matchup.

For starters, New York owns a convincing 8-4 advantage over Miami in the season series. Even in those four losses, the Mets still covered this +1.5 twice. While they split yesterday's doubleheader, New York outscored them 13-6 on the day after crushing them 11-2 in Game 1.

The biggest variable for New York tonight is the pitching matchup. A pair of lefties face off -- David Peterson for the Mets and Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins.

Luzardo boasts significantly better numbers than Peterson -- at least at face value. For the year, Luzardo sports a 3.73 ERA, a 3.75 SIERA, and a 27.7% strikeout rate. Luzardo has been one of the better strikeout arms in the league this season and sits in the top 25% of qualified pitchers in whiff (30.9%) and chase (31.2%) rates. However, poor quality of contact metrics can get him into trouble -- notably his 9.6% barrel rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate.

Luzardo tossed 5.2 shutout innings the only time he faced New York this season, but that was back on Opening Day. The Mets have been around league-average against lefties over the second half, ranking 16th in wRC+ (96), 18th in wOBA (.307), and 16th in ISO (.156) since the All-Star break. Those aren't world-beating numbers by any means, but they're a noticeable improvement over their first-half splits.

I mentioned that Luzardo has better numbers than Peterson at face value because of how much the lefty has underperformed compared to his expected stats. Peterson comes into tonight with an ugly 5.37 ERA but a solid 3.94 SIERA. He's allowed an absurd (and unsustainable) .375 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this season -- a pretty clear explanation for his rough counting stats.

Peterson is no ace, but he's certainly not a 5-ERA arm. While he's not a zero in the strikeout department (25.8% K rate), he excels at forcing ground balls. For the season, the lefty sits in the 91st percentile league-wide with a 55.3% ground ball rate.

That could pay dividends against a Marlins lineup that hits ground balls at the fifth-highest rate (45.9%) against left-handed pitchers. In general, Miami has taken a step back against lefties since the All-Star break. Over that span, they rank 22nd in wRC+ (88), 20th in wOBA (.303), and 17th in ISO (.155).

Given how well the Mets have played the Marlins this year, I'd be shocked to see them get blown out here. As home underdogs, they're a strong value tonight -- even at -142 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.