Miami Open Betting Guide: Monday 3/25/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Miami Open Betting Guide: Monday 3/25/24

Following an exciting Indian Wells, we get another premier American tennis tournament with the Miami Open.

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Miami Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Monday's matches?

Miami Open Best Bets

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Yannick Hanfmann

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-122)

After turning back the clock in a successful 2023 campaign, Grigor Dimitrov has continued his strong play this year. Dimitrov has gone 16-4 in 2024, taking home a title at Brisbane and finishing runner-up at Marseille.

Outside of a surprise loss to Nuno Borges at the Australian Open, Dimitrov's other three defeats have come against tough competition in Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur, and Ugo Humbert -- all players now ranked in the top 15.

Despite turning 33 years old in May, Dimitrov has been playing his best tennis in years. His No. 12 ranking is his best mark since he ranked 10th way back in 2018. He's been a menace on hard courts specifically, too, amassing the ATP Tour's seventh-best win percentage on the surface (72.3%) over the past 52 weeks.

On the other hand, 56th-ranked Yannick Hanfmann has never had much success on hard courts, owning an 8-23 career record in those matches. He also has a sub-.500 overall record this season (7-8), and unlike Dimitrov, who has played exclusively on hard courts in 2024, Hanfmann has split his time between hard courts and clay.

While Dimitrov needed three sets to defeat Alejandro Tabilo in his opening Miami match, we should expect him to right the ship against a lower-ranked opponent who simply doesn't play particularly well on this surface.

According to Tennis Abstact's Elo ratings, Dimitrov has an 89.3% win probability against Hanfmann, which falls in line with him being a -880 favorite. I like him to win in straight sets, giving this match a great chance to come in below 20.5 total match games.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Ben Shelton

Shelton -3.5 Games (+104)

Although Ben Shelton hasn't been able to string together more than two wins in a row yet in 2024, he's still produced a solid 11-6 record, which includes two semifinal appearances (Auckland and Dallas) and a quarterfinal (Acapulco).

His last four losses have come against top-20 opponents, too, so it's not like he's fallen to weak competition. In Shelton's most recent loss, he took a then-undefeated Jannik Sinner to a first-set tiebreak before ultimately fading in straight sets.

Expanding out to the last 52 weeks, Shelton has the Tour's 15th-best win percentage on hard courts (63.4%). It wasn't all that long ago that the young American was making waves with a semifinal appearance at last year's US Open (losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic), demonstrating his upside when he's in form.

And speaking of form, it's safe to say Lorenzo Musetti is still searching for his in the early stages of this season. Despite his No. 24 ranking, he comes in with an unsightly 6-8 record in 2024, and before his opening win in Miami, he had lost five of his last six matches.

The reality is that Musetti is much more comfortable on clay, and he has a dismal 11-20 record on hard courts over the last 52 weeks.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings forecast a Shelton win 75.3% of the time. While there isn't much value in backing the American as a -275 favorite, we should like his chances of covering this spread at plus odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.