Kentucky Derby Horse: Intrepido Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd Kentucky Derby is coming up at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. The final points races are over, and the field is taking clearer shape by the day. Intrepido had been on the bubble after the points races ended, but after the connections of Stark Contrast announced April 23 that he would run in the American Turf instead, Intrepido has been promoted to the main field of the Kentucky Derby.

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Intrepido Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The draw for the Kentucky Derby happened Saturday, April 25; morning-line odds were released the same day. Intrepido is one of the joint longest shots on the morning line at 50-1, fitting because he comes out of a disappointing final prep and seemed to be in sharper form earlier in the prep season. He also has to deal with post 3 – not an impossible post, as Mystik Dan just won from the gate in 2024, but also a recipe for some traffic snarling near the rail early.

Intrepido Horse Trainer and Jockey

Intrepido is trained by Jeff Mullins. Mullins has had four Kentucky Derby starters, but none since 2005. His best Kentucky Derby finisher to date is Buzzards Bay, who finished fifth in 2005.

Hector Berrios was Intrepido’s regular rider in California. If he comes to Kentucky and rides him in the Derby, he would be Berrios’ first Kentucky Derby mount. Berrios earned his first Breeders’ Cup victory in 2025 with Super Corredora in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and his seven career Grade 1 wins also include the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in 2025 with Baeza.

Intrepido Race History

Intrepido was fourth behind buzz horse Brant on debut in a maiden sprint Del Mar, but improved on the stretch out to two turns. He broke his maiden going a mile at Del Mar in August and followed that up with a win in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) at Keeneland in October. He came up empty in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but returned with a runner-up finish in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) to start the year, missing by three-quarters of a length to Plutarch. He regressed in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, chasing toward the rear of a compact pack and coming up empty in the lane.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Intrepido Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

From a pace perspective, he has shown some versatility; he broke his maiden on the front end but won the American Pharoah from a stalk-and-pounce style. Tactical speed is always good to have in the Kentucky Derby.

Of course, the question remains whether he is good enough, and his final prep race raises serious questions in that regard. His regression in the 1 ⅛-mile Santa Anita Derby was a concern, especially since he’s by Maximus Mischief, who won the Remsen (G2) at 1 ⅛ miles as a juvenile but raced once at three and retired. He also has yet to travel out of California, and trainer Jeff Mullins’ shippers tend to underperform.

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