Kentucky Derby Horse: Commandment Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd Kentucky Derby is coming up at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. The prep races are all finished, and the 20-horse field is coming into sharp focus. Commandment, winner of the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, is the top point earner in the field with 150 points after beating strong company like The Puma and Chief Wallabee.

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Commandment Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The Kentucky Derby was drawn on Saturday, April 25, and morning-line odds were announced that same day at the draw ceremony. Commandment drew post 6 – a perfectly solid near-middle post that should let him find a tracking or midpack spot without losing too much ground. He is the joint second choice on the morning line at 6-1; as the winner of the deepest prep of the season, his position near the top of the market is well-deserved.

Commandment Horse Trainer and Jockey

Brad Cox has an embarrassment of riches in the Kentucky Derby: three of the top five point-earners, including Commandment, the biggest point earner of all. Cox has trained 12 Kentucky Derby starters so far and won once, with Mandaloun in 2021. He has sent out two favorites, Essential Quality in 2021 and Angel of Empire in 2023; both of them finished third.

Luis Saez is slated to ride Commandment for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, since his Florida Derby winner Flavien Prat committed to ride Emerging Market, and his Fountain of Youth rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call on Renegade. Saez’s best finish on the first Saturday in May was third, with Essential Quality in 2021, though he crossed the wire first with Maximum Security in 2019 and was disqualified.

Commandment Race History

After a fourth-place debut at Keeneland, Commandment broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, showing he can handle the footing at the Kentucky Derby’s home track. That kicked off a four-win streak, as he went three-for-three in stakes races at the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Commandment Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Commandment was red-hot on the road to the Kentucky Derby: out of his five starts, he has won his last four, including a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall. He has also come out on top despite keeping the best strength of schedule in his Kentucky Derby, going toe-to-toe with top prospects like The Puma and Chief Wallabee.

The biggest question at a short price is that he has yet to hit the same speed figure ceiling as some of the other Kentucky Derby contenders like Further Ado, So Happy, or Silent Tactic. But, he doesn’t need a huge step up to match them. And, there’s pedigree appeal: his sire Into Mischief has produced three Kentucky Derby winners already, and his dam Sippican Harbor is by Kentucky Derby winner Orb.

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