Kentucky Derby Horse: Albus Odds, History, and Predictions

The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby is coming up Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs. The prep races are over, and the field is taking shape. One of the most surprising contenders in the Run for the Roses is Albus, for trainer Riley Mott. He was defeated in a couple of strong maiden races at age two but has put it all together in a pair of starts as a sophomore. He earned his trip to Louisville with a victory in his stakes debut, which came in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct.

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Albus Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The morning line for the Kentucky Derby was assigned on Saturday, April 25, along with the post positions. Albus is one of the longer shots on the morning line at 30-1; this price reflects his relative lack of stakes experience and the disappointing record of the Wood Memorial as a Derby prep in recent decades. Albus will break from post 2, which can be challenging in a field of 20.

Albus Horse Trainer and Jockey

Albus is one of two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby trained by Riley Mott, who also conditions Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt. Horse racing runs in the family – Riley Mott is the son of two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bill Mott – but these will be his first two starters in the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Manuel Franco will ride Albus for the first time in the Kentucky Derby; his Wood Memorial rider, Jaime Torres, takes the call on Incredibolt, the other Riley Mott horse. Franco has hit the board once in six trips to the Kentucky Derby: he rode Tiz the Law to a second-place finish behind Authentic in 2020.

Albus Race History

Albus tried a couple of different running styles at two, rallying from near the back for fourth in his debut at Keeneland and then disputing the pace before flattening to third in a maiden race in November at Churchill Downs, his only race over the Kentucky Derby course. In his sophomore debut, he was a visually impressive maiden winner, stalking the pace and blowing clear by 6 ¾ lengths in a one-mile, 40-yard race at Tampa Bay Downs in February. In the Wood Memorial, Albus reverted to his closing style, rallying into a fast pace, hitting the front approaching the eighth pole, and winning by 1 ¼ lengths over Right to Party, becoming a graded-stakes winner in his stakes debut.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Albus Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

The best thing Albus has going for him into the Kentucky Derby is his pace versatility: he has been able to win from a stalking style as well as a closing style. In a field of up to 20 horses, where chaos can be the order of the day, the ability to win from multiple pace shapes always helps.

However, Albus is going to need to take a huge step up in terms of speed figures. His pedigree raises questions about whether he’ll improve: he is sired by sprinter Yaupon, and though his female family is classy, it skews more middle-distance than Triple Crown distances. Furthermore, he comes out of the Wood Memorial – though the race has historical importance and it would be a good story to have a Kentucky Derby winner from the final Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, it has been mostly futile in the 21st century. The only top-three finisher from the Wood since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran 1-2 in 2003 was Tactitus, who finished third in 2019.

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