ESPN confirms -120 FD. Covers and Yahoo: "Argentina Win + Over 3 Goals + Lautaro Martínez to Score" is their primary bet builder. Covers: "Lautaro Martínez has eight goals in Argentina's recent competitive run-in and will be motivated to make his mark." With Messi on the bench, Lautaro starts as Argentina's primary striker and receives maximum service in the first half. Jordan's defence (5 goals conceded, 3 from corners) cannot handle his movement. $10→$18.33.

Racing Post explicit: "Atlético Madrid striker Julián Álvarez will be one of the more desperate. The former Manchester City forward has had to settle for two substitute appearances against Algeria and Austria, but this should be the game when he comes to the fore. Goals in the closing stages of Atleti's Champions League campaign meant he came into the tournament confidently and he looks a strong bet to find the net." Sportsgambler: "An intelligent mover off the ball who consistently finds pockets of space — this price is too good to ignore." First WC start. Full 90 minutes. $10→$18.33.

ESPN confirms +150 FD and names Paz as the confirmed starter in Messi's XI spot. The key value insight: Paz at +150 is a better price than both Lautaro (-120) and Álvarez (-120) despite being a confirmed 90-minute starter in the same attack. He's a 21-year-old Real Madrid-owned creative talent replacing the world's best player in the XI. Against Jordan's open defensive shape in a match Argentina are expected to dominate, any Argentina attacker in the right position scores. Paz gets the most minutes on this board and costs less than both forwards. $10→$25.