Jerry Jeudy to Browns: 2024 Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
Jerry Jeudy to Browns: 2024 Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

The NFL offseason never sleeps.

After months of trade rumors surrounding Jerry Jeudy, the Denver Broncos agreed to send him to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a fifth and sixth-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Shortly after acquiring the former first-round pick, the Browns inked Jeudy to a three-year, $52.50 million extension. The fact that Cleveland was so quick to extend the soon-to-be 25-year-old suggests that he'll play a major role in their offense going forward.

What can we expect from Jeudy in 2024?

Jerry Jeudy 2024 Player Props

An early look at the Jerry Jeudy 2024-25 Regular Season Specials market on FanDuel Sportsbook helps answer that.

Jerry Jeudy 2024-25 Regular Season Specials
Jerry Jeudy to Record 750+ Regular Season Receiving Yards+105
Jerry Jeudy to have 6+ Regular Season Receiving TDs+260
Jerry Jeudy to Record 1000+ Regular Season Receiving Yards+420

Last year, Jeudy finished with 758 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Playing for a better offense could help him reach the touchdown prop, but he just needs to repeat last year's yardage total to hit the shorter receiving yards prop.

It's worth noting that Jerry Jeudy has been held under 1,000 receiving yards in all four of his NFL seasons.

Jerry Jeudy's Fit in Cleveland

The 2024-25 season will be Jerry Jeudy's fifth in the NFL. The Alabama product peaked with 67 receptions, 927 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 2022 before notably regressing to 54 receptions, 758 yards, and 2 touchdowns last season.

Jeudy has flashed the ability to handle large workloads, notably amassing a 20.8% target share in 2022. His target share dipped to 19.4% last year, though that still would've ranked second on the Browns.

Jeudy's spot in Cleveland's pecking order is unclear, but he benefits from being able to play out wide and in the slot. Last year, the Browns deployed Amari Cooper out wide on 78.1% of his snaps, while Elijah Moore split time in the slot (44.0%) and out wide (53.5%), per PFF. Jeudy spent 59.1% of his snaps in the slot and 39.8% out wide in 2023.

According to nfelo, Cleveland utilized 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) on 1st down at the sixth-highest rate in the league. That should allow all three of their wideouts to see a sizable number of snaps, just like last season.

From Weeks 1-8 (before the Browns severed ties with Donovan Peoples-Jones), three different Browns wideouts saw at least a 75% snap rate. After Cleveland traded Peoples-Jones, rookie Cedric Tillman took on his role, playing 79% of snaps and commanding an 11.2% target share from Weeks 9-18. That snap rate feels like a fair estimate for Jeudy, though we'd hope for a larger target share.

Despite their tendency to field multiple receivers, Cleveland finished with a -3.7% pass rate over expectation (23rd in the league). However, Denver was at -3.8% last year and -2.1% in 2022, so a run-first offense won't be anything Jeudy isn't used to.

There's also a world where Cleveland leans more on the passing game in their third season with Deshaun Watson. Watson was limited to five full games last season, but he did average 33.2 pass attempts and 222.0 yards per game.

While it wasn't a great showing from Watson, it's hard not to think about his spectacular 2020 season with the Houston Texans. That year, Watson helped Brandin Cooks amass 1,150 yards and 6 touchdowns alongside Will Fuller's 879 yards and 8 touchdowns. We're now three seasons removed from that version of Deshaun, but he has proven capable of supporting multiple wideouts.

Still, Jeudy will likely be the third option in Cleveland's passing game with Cooper and tight end David Njoku ahead of him. That doesn't take his props out of the equation, but it's worth noting that Cooper (1,250 yards; 5 touchdowns) and Njoku (882 yards; 6 touchdowns) were the only two Browns receivers to sniff any of Jeudy's three season special props.

Jerry Jeudy Consensus 2024 Projections

Initial DraftSharks projections for Jeudy include 62.9 receptions (on 98.6 targets) for 867 yards and 4.42 touchdowns.

Rotowire is a bit lower on Jeudy, projecting him for 55 receptions, 710 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

ESPN's Mike Clay is more bullish on the former 15th overall pick. Clay projects Jeudy for 62 receptions (on 99 targets) for 923 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Early projections don't show much value in Jeudy's touchdown props but expecting him to exceed 750 receiving yards (+105) isn't farfetched. More optimistic projections have him flirting with 900 receiving yards, so there's a world where he breaks out and records at least 1,000 receiving yards (+420).

It's hard to look at Jeudy's draft pedigree and 2022 season and not get excited about a fresh start. Cleveland's passing attack has more questions than answers right now, but Jeudy is one of the league's most high-variance receivers heading into 2024.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.