Indian Wells Betting Guide: Monday 3/11/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Indian Wells Betting Guide: Monday 3/11/24

Indian Wells -- aka the BNP Paribas Open -- is one of the world's most prestigious non-major tennis tournaments, often unofficially regarded as the "Fifth Grand Slam."

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Indian Wells Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Monday

Indian Wells Best Bets

Tommy Paul vs. Ugo Humbert

Humbert ML (-110)

This match is being priced as a pick 'em with Tommy Paul (17 seed) and Ugo Humbert (14 seed) each listed at -110 odds to win. At first glance, this makes sense, as these are similarly seeded players who have both performed well to begin 2024.

That being said, there's a case that Humbert should actually be the clear favorite.

The 25-year-old Frenchman is off to a fast start to the season, logging a 13-3 record while already taking home two hard-court titles (Marseille and Dubai). Both of those championships came last month, and Humbert now finds himself on a six-match win streak.

There's little question that hard courts are Humbert's preferred surface, too. Over the last 52 weeks, he's 38-14 in hard-court matches, boasting the Tour's sixth-best win percentage (73.1%).

Of course, Paul is certainly no slouch, going 30-18 in that sample with a 62.5% win rate. He's also enjoyed a positive start to the season, posting a 10-4 record while also earning a title (Dallas).

Still, Humbert's recent credentials are the more impressive of the two, and he's also held up well against tough competition in 2024, owning a 4-1 record versus top-20 opponents.

Per Tennis Abstract's Elo Ratings, Humbert is getting a 62.5% win probability, which would suggest he should be closer to a -167 favorite. While Paul will effectively have a home-court advantage as the American, the value we're getting in backing Humbert feels too good to pass up.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Korda

Medvedev -3.5 Games (-126)

We're going against another American here, but that's no disrespect to Sebastian Korda -- Daniil Medvedev is just that good.

Easily one of the best hard-court players on Tour, Medvedev has amassed a 39-12 record (76.5%) on the surface across the last 52 weeks. Only Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic have a better win percentage over that span.

In 2024, Medvedev has participated in just two tournaments prior to Indian Wells, and while he didn't win either one, it's hard to argue with a runner-up finish at the Australian Open and making the semifinals at Dubai. His two losses have come against Sinner and Humbert, which is also nothing to be ashamed of.

Daniil had a great run at last year's Indian Wells tournament, too, advancing to the final before losing to Carlos Alcaraz.

Korda has actually enjoyed some success against Medvedev before, winning both their meetings in 2023. Overall, he leads their head-to-head 2-1.

However, it's Korda's recent form that should give us pause. The American is a mere 8-6 this season, failing to win more than two matches in a row at any point thus far. While his losses have mostly been against elite competition, he's 0-4 against top-20 opponents. Perhaps most concerningly, he didn't win any sets in those four losses, either.

Tennis Abstract's forecast is firmly behind Medvedev, projecting an 81.2% win probability. Even with such a lofty number, it's hard to get excited about backing the Russian as a -280 favorite, but I like his chances to cover this spread against a player who might not be at his best.

Given Korda's recent set-less streak versus top-20 opponents, backing Daniil Medvedev 2-0 sets (+105) is another intriguing option.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.