How Many Receiving Yards Will Marvin Harrison Jr. Total in His Rookie Season?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
How Many Receiving Yards Will Marvin Harrison Jr. Total in His Rookie Season?

The Arizona Cardinals were linked to Marvin Harrison Jr. for much of the NFL Draft process once the picks were locked in after the regular season wrapped up. The top four picks of the draft didn't have much drama as it went as most mock drafts predicted.

Starting with Caleb Williams to the Chicago Bears, Jayden Daniels to the Washington Commanders, and Drake Maye to the New England Patriots, the Cardinals used the fourth pick on Harrison -- the superstar receiver out of Ohio State.

Following Williams (+210), Harrison is carrying the second-shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year (+600) when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds. The son of Hall of Fame wideout Marvin Harrison has drawn hype for years now. Will he live up to the buzz in his rookie season?

FanDuel is offering various lines for rookies following the 2024 NFL Draft. This includes which rookie will lead in passing and receiving yards. There are also odds for individual player stat lines. This includes Harrison with his receiving yard total set at over/under 1,050.5 for his rookie campaign.

Will Harrison go over or under 1,050.5? Let's break it down.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Projections

Why Marvin Harrison Jr. Could Receive Over 1,050.5 Yards (-112)

The odds are the same for each side, sitting at -112. This will simply be about which bet makes the most sense.

There's plenty of support for the over. Most importantly, Harrison should get a ton of volume in this offense.

In the 2023 season, Arizona's leading receiver was tight end Trey McBride with 825 yards. The next-best mark was Marquise Brown logging 574 receiving yards, and he departed in the offseason, signing a one-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, the passing attempts were also down due to Kyler Murray recovering from a knee injury. He appeared in only eight games last season, leading to the Cardinals finishing with the ninth-fewest passing attempts per game. In the 2022 season -- when Murray started in 11 games -- Arizona totaled the fourth-most attempts per game.

In the first nine games of 2023 without Murray, Arizona averaged only 162.7 passing yards per game and 31.9 passing attempts. With Murray, the Cards increased their passing yards to 210.0 per contest and 33.5 attempts.

Let's also take a second to focus on the receiving group. As previously mentioned, "Hollywood" Brown is no longer in the desert. Of course, DeAndre Hopkins walked following the 2022 season, and Zach Ertz was released during the 2023 campaign.

Outside of Harrison, what quality targets are available? Someone has to catch the ball, no matter how poor the passing offense is.

McBride had an excellent 2023 season and could be the second target for this offense. At wideout, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are expected to start. Wilson totaled 565 receiving yards in 2023 while Dortch came up with only 280 yards.

I have very little fear, if any at all, of Harrison's surrounding pieces taking away from his workload. Mostly for this reason and Murray entering the season healthy, I like Maserati Marv -- coined by Gus Johnson of Fox Sports -- to go over 1,050.5 yards.

Mike Clay of ESPN has a projection guide for the 2024 season, and he is forecasting 1,116 receiving yards for Harrison in his rookie season.

Why Marvin Harrison Jr. Could Receive Under 1,050.5 Yards (-112)

I'm having a tougher time finding evidence to take the under. Perhaps the biggest talking point could be putting too much of a load on Harrison.

He could be the only true threat at receiver in this offense, meaning defenses will likely key in on the rookie. Going back to Clay's projections, he has Harrison accounting for 46.2% of yards from receivers. That's a daunting workload for a first-year player.

While Harrison flourished despite consistently drawing double-teams at Ohio State, the NFL is a grown man's league. This is simply a different level, and Harrison could stumble if he's drawing plenty of attention off of the bat.

Focusing on Murray's play at quarterback is also worth some time. He showed plenty of promise over his first three years in the league, but injuries have been a problem recently. Murray played in 14 games of the 2021 season, followed by 11 contests in 2022 and 8 games last season. If Murray continues to miss time, this of course hurts Harrison's chances of going over.

We also can't ignore that coach Jonathan Gannon has changed this offense. There are no guarantees that Murray goes back to high passing volume like he had in 2022. His 33.5 passing attempts per game in 2023 was nothing jaw-dropping. For reference, the Green Bay Packers had the 13th-fewest passing attempts per game at 33.5 last season.

This simply could have been easing Murray back from injury. There's no denying that Arizona increased their run game usage, though, going from 25.5 carries per game in 2022 (13th-fewest) to 27.7 in 2023 (12th-most).

The offensive line's strength was also in running the ball. According to ESPN, the O-line had the 6th-best run-block win rate and the 14th-worst pass-block win rate. Pass protection looks like a concern, and the Cards just invested into the run game by drafting Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The under still makes an interesting case, mostly focusing on the potential of Arizona leaning into the run game. Still, I believe Harrison should receive plenty of targets considering the wide receiver room, and Murray is a better QB than most elite receiving prospects end up with.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.