MLB

Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/16/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a sky-high 4.93 implied run total against the Cincinnati Reds, where we could see the ball flying tonight.

The Reds will send Brent Suter to the mound, in the hopes he can quell the Dodgers' powerful offense. That doesn't look like the case tonight, since Suter struggles versus both lefties and righties, putting him in a very tough matchup.

This season, Suter has allowed a .446 SLG, .355 wOBA, 4.96 xFIP, 1.29 HR/9, and 50.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. With a high fly-ball rate, things could turn ugly quickly for Suter given the power up-and-down the Los Angeles' lineup.

We'll turn to Teoscar Hernandez, who has a solid combination of power and viable odds worth targeting. This season, he is rocking a 153 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .315 ISO, 34.1% fly-ball rate, and 43.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Hernandez has some serious pop and has been crushing the ball as of late with several batted balls over 100 mph but no home runs. I love everything about this matchup, so I'll add, Hernandez To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+350)

Next up, the Houston Astros could be in for a big night at the plate.

They are taking on Joey Estes of the Oakland Athletics, a pitcher we can certainly target for homers. Estes needs a bit of an explanation since he has just 15.0 innings pitched at the MLB level between this year and last.

Over that time, he's allowed a .742 SLG, .445 wOBA, 4.70 HR/9, 5.49 xFIP, 58.3% fly-ball rate, and 45.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some disastrous numbers but they come from a very small sample size.

However, we can find some truth from them as he struggled this season in Triple-A with 2.22 HR/9 and a 39.1% fly-ball rate overall. Along with his Triple-A numbers from 2023, where he had a 2.76 HR/9 and 45.5% fly-ball rate allowed.

Will those figures stabilize as his sample size increases? Yes. Is he still worth targeting right now? Also, yes.

I'll turn to a proven lefty power hitter in Kyle Tucker, who comes in with a 177 wRC+, .420 wOBA, .302 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's been elite for several seasons and this is a matchup to put that on display, so I'll add Tucker To Record an RBI (+130), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.