Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks for July 21, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Brandon Lowe +330
• Yordan Alvarez +230
• TJ Rumfield +520

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Pirates at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

Brandon Lowe checks a few boxes tonight and is my favorite HR pick on this Dinger Tuesday.

Lowe gets a big park-factor boost at Yankee Stadium, the sixth-best venue for left-handed homers.

Lowe is also in his preferred split, facing a right-hander (Will Warren). With the platoon advantage this season, Lowe has a .368 wOBA, 42.1% hard-hit rate and 43.7% fly-ball rate. Of his 21 tanks this season, 17 have come in this split. He’s also been much better on the road (.361 wOBA) than at home (.319).

On top of that, Warren has given up a .343 wOBA and 1.47 jacks per nine to lefty bats.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+230)

Marlins at Pirates, 8:11 p.m. ET

Despite some short HR odds, Yordan Alvarez is still an appealing dinger pick.

Alvarez is pushing for the AL MVP Award, and he’s got some insane numbers, including a .480 expected wOBA, 50.7% hard-hit rate and 49.3% fly-ball rate. That’s resulted in 33 bombs.

Yordan is rolling at the moment, too, hitting four homers with a .704 wOBA across his past 32 plate appearances.

He’s taking on Miami Marlins RHP Tyler Phillips. Lefties have tagged Phillips for a .352 wOBA, and Alvarez owns a .478 wOBA, 54.4% hard-hit rate and 51.9% fly-ball rate against righties.

On top of that, Miami’s bullpen holds the 11th-worst reliever xFIP over the last 30 days.

TJ Rumfield to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Nationals at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Coors is usually a pretty nice place to look for homers, and that’s especially true today as Miles Mikolas and Michael Lorenzen are the starting pitchers for this Colorado Rockies-Washington Nationals clash.

While there are five players with +300 HR odds or shorter, I’m interested in longshot TJ Rumfield.

Rumfield has been good against right-handers, producing a 41.5% fly-ball rate and .398 wOBA in the split. Of his 13 long-balls, 11 have come with the platoon advantage.

Mikolas is running on fumes. He’s allowed exactly two home runs in three of his past five appearances. He’s got a 4.72 SIERA and 12.5% K rate on the season, and even if a southpaw ends up opening for Mikolas, I still like Rumfield at these lengthy odds.

It’s Dinger Tuesday! YOU CAN CHOOSE between a 50% PBT and TWO 25% PBTs to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” wager(s) on any MLB Games taking place on July 21st, 2026! See here for full details.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.