Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 4/29/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ceddanne Rafaela
• Brenton Doyle
• Jac Caglianone

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Predictions for Today

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+590)

Red Sox at Blue Jays, 3:08 p.m. ET

My favorite HR prop of the day comes in an afternoon game as I like this spot for Ceddanne Rafaela.

The Toronto Blue Jays are starting lefty Eric Lauer. Lauer had a quality campaign a year ago, but he's off to a miserable start this season, recording a 5.35 SIERA and lowly 6.9% swinging-strike rate through his first 22.2 innings of 2026.

He's allowing 1.80 jacks per nine and a 60.7% fly-ball rate to righty bats, which makes this a great matchup for Rafaela.

Rafaela has been hitting atop the order lately, and he posted a 42.0% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage last year.

At the seventh-best park for homers -- per Statcast Park Factors -- Rafaela can leave the yard today.

Brenton Doyle to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Rockies at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Brenton Doyle isn't at Coors, but Great American Ball Park -- which is second in HR factor -- is a pretty great fall-back option. He's also facing a lefty, and that puts him on the dinger radar.

Against southpaws last year, Doyle amassed a .361 wOBA and 39.8% hard-hit rate. While he's off to a slow start this season, Doyle has popped 38 bombs over the previous two years.

The left-handers he'll see is Brandon Williamson, who is on the struggle bus this season with a 6.16 SIERA. He's surrendered 1.50 home runs per nine in his career, and he's had a rough time at his home digs, allowing 2.23 homers per nine at Great American Ball Park in his career.

It gets even better for Doyle -- not only is the wind blowing out, the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is fourth-worst in xFIP this year.

Jac Caglianone to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Royals at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

The Kansas City Royals hit two long-balls last night in homer-friendly Sacramento, and they're in another sweet matchup tonight against Luis Severino. That pushes me toward Jac Caglianone.

Caglianone showed big power in the minors last year and hit seven homers in 232 MLB plate appearances after being called up. His metrics look strong this year, including a .355 wOBA and 38.9% hard-hit rate. He's at his best versus RHPs, producing a .341 wOBA and 39.0% hard-hit rate in the split.

Tonight, he'll be up against Severino, a right-hander who has struggled to a 4.87 SIERA this year. The A's temporary home did him no favors in 2025 as he permitted a .345 wOBA and 38.2% hard-hit rate in Sacramento (compared to a .277 wOBA and 33.7% hard-hit rate on the road).

With two tanks and a .392 expected wOBA over his past 24 plate appearances, Caglianone is hot, and he can keep cooking tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.