Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/21/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Aaron Judge
• Nick Kurtz
• Hunter Goodman

Some of the top power bats in the game, including Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz, have made it into today's home run article.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+290)

Blue Jays at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

The Toronto Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game today. The expectation is that Toronto will start opener Braydon Fisher before likely turning things over to Spencer Miles and then going from there. Both should have a hard time against the New York Yankees' offense, and that pushes me to Aaron Judge in the dinger market.

Fisher is a reliever with a meh 10.8% swinging-strike rate while Miles has a 9.4% swinging-strike rate, so the Yankees get to see two righties early who aren't good at generating whiffs.

Judge has 16 tanks this season along with a gaudy .431 expected wOBA. He's been more productive at home (.438 wOBA) than on the road (.383), and his home hard-hit rate of 55.6% is well above his away hard-hit rate of 41.0%.

Judge hasn't gone deep since May 10, which is a long stretch for him. I think he gets back on the HR track tonight.

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+370)

A's at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Jose Soriano is starting for the Los Angeles Angels, and he's having an excellent season. But there are reasons to back Nick Kurtz in the homer market.

For one, Soriano is a righty, and Kurtz mashes in this split, racking up a .444 wOBA and 52.1% hard-hit rate against RHPs.

Kurtz is also red-hot at the moment, posting a .443 wOBA and three taters in May.

As good as Soriano has been, he's not quite as lights out against lefty bats, with four of his five HRs allowed coming to left-handers while he gives up a 38.6% hard-hit rate in the split.

Once Soriano departs, Kurtz will take his hacks against an Angels bullpen that is fifth-worst in reliever xFIP.

All in all, despite the tough matchup, Kurtz has some things going for him tonight.

Hunter Goodman to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Rockies at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Veteran Eduardo Rodriguez is struggling, and Hunter Goodman can take advantage.

E-Rod is putting up career-worst numbers across the board, including a 4.72 SIERA and 17.5% K rate. He's still preventing homers well, but there's some good fortune involved as his homer-to-fly-ball rate of 7.1% is well below his 12.9% mark from 2024-2025.

Goodman, meanwhile, is off to a wonderful start this campaign. He's launched 11 bombs with a .342 wOBA. Oddly, he has a significantly higher wOBA away from Coors (.393) than he does at home (.287), and 8 of his 11 jacks have come on the road. He also has a 44.0% hard-hit rate against lefties.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who are today's best home run picks?

Aaron Judge, Nick Kurtz and Hunter Goodman are all in a good spot to leave the yard today.

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.