Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Josh Naylor (+470)
• Bryce Harper (+430)
• Jake Bauers (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Mariners at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Righty Brandon Young will be on the hill for the Baltimore Orioles, and I like this spot for the Seattle Mariners' offense.

Young has thrown 107 MLB innings in his career, and he's got a 4.70 SIERA and 17.9% strikeout rate. Lefties have tagged him for a .352 wOBA, 1.48 jacks per nine and a 42.7% fly-ball rate.

Enter Josh Naylor.

Naylor had a slow start in the power department this season but is trending up. Over his last 31 plate appearances, he's hit two homers while amassing a .429 wOBA with a .607 slugging percentage.

All but one of his home runs this year have come against RHPs, and he gets a park-factor boost at Camden Yards. Plus, the wind is blowing out.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Phillies at Blue Jays, 7:08 p.m. ET

Max Scherzer is coming off the IL today, and this is a friendly matchup for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Scherzer has thrown just 18.2 MLB innings this season, and they have not gone well as he owns some ugly numbers, including a 6.02 SIERA, 11.9% K rate and 3.38 homers per nine.

Harper has been hammering righties this season to the tune of a .418 wOBA and 40.9% hard-hit rate. Of his 14 homers, 11 have come with the platoon advantage. He's also been more productive on the road (.387 wOBA) than at home (.370 wOBA).

All in all, Harper checks a lot of boxes.

Jake Bauers to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Brewers at A's, 9:06 p.m. ET

The A's-Milwaukee Brewers series in Vegas has been a home run derby, and the dinger market is funny to look at as there is five players with +300 HR odds or shorter.

Jake Bauers is one of those players, and he's my favorite HR pick today.

The Athletics are giving the ball to Jack Perkins, a right-hander who has split time between the bullpen and rotation. He permitted five earned runs in four innings in a start last time out, and I don't see him finding much success at the Vegas launching pad. Oddsmakers don't either as the total for this game is at 14.5.

Bauers is having a monster year, generating a .393 wOBA and 40.8% hard-hit rate. Against RHPs, he's posted a .411 wOBA and 43.0% hard-hit rate -- with 10 of his 12 long-balls coming in the split.

To make things even better, the wind is blowing out to right.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 34% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.