Home Run Picks Today: Walker, Henderson and a +560 Dinger Prop

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson +285
• Christian Walker +390
• Trevor Larnach +560

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Cubs at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Whenever Gunnar Henderson is at home against a meh righty, I am interested, and that’s the case today versus Colin Rea.

Henderson is already only one homer shy of his 2025 output, popping 16 jacks thus far. A year ago, he absolutely raked at home versus RHPs, racking up a .394 wOBA in the split.

Rea is a good matchup for Henderson as the Chicago Cubs‘ righty owns a 4.71 SIERA and 17.2% strikeout rate. Lefty bats are torching Rea for a .371 wOBA, and he’s allowed 1.55 jacks per nine on the road.

Once Rea departs, Henderson will see a Cubs bullpen that has permitted the second-most homers per nine (1.42).

Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Astros at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

Christian Walker‘s first campaign with the Houston Astros was underwhelming. He’s bounced back this season, producing a .341 wOBA with 20 bombs.

Walker’s matchup today isn’t an easy one as he’ll battle Foster Griffin, a lefty who has been getting good results. But Walker elevates the ball super well with the platoon advantage, recording a 53.7% fly-ball rate in the split, and Griffin is striking out only 21.4% of right-handed hitters.

Walker has two tanks and a .376 wOBA over his last 37 plate appearances. He’s in a good groove, and he can leave the yard against Griffin. But as an added bonus, the Washington Nationals‘ bullpen boasts the fourth-worst xFIP (4.82).

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Guardians at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

Trevor Larnach catches my eye as a longshot HR pick.

Larnach is at home versus Slade Cecconi, a low-strikeout RHP. Cecconi has a 17.7% K rate this season, and he’s coming off a start in which he surrendered five earned runs and a homer in five innings.

While Larnach is a pinch-hit risk if he faces a southpaw later in the game, I think that’s plenty baked into the market, and he’s nuking righties this year to the tune of a .375 wOBA and 43.1% fly-ball rate. He ended June with a gaudy .401 wOBA for the month and has a comical .505 wOBA so far in July.

Larnach is scorching hot, will likely be slotted into the leadoff spot and might even get to hit against lefties given how banged up the Minnesota Twins are. All in all, these long odds are appealing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.