Home Run Picks and Predictions Today: Rice, Elly and a +520 Home Run Bet

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ben Rice (+285)
• Elly De La Cruz (+330)
• Kyle Tucker (+520)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Picks

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Yankees at Nationals, 4:06 p.m. ET

Ben Rice has been one of the biggest breakout stars in the American League, entering play with 29 home runs, a .286 average, a .965 OPS and a .602 slugging percentage. He continues to thrive near the top of the New York Yankees‘ lineup and draws a favorable matchup against veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas, who enters the day with a 5.78 ERA.

Mikolas has struggled to miss bats this season, forcing him to pitch to contact far too often. That's rarely a winning formula against a hitter with Rice's pull-side power.

Rice has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, launching 21 of his 29 jacks in the split and amassing a .433 wOBA with the platoon advantage. His quick left-handed swing allows him to turn on fastballs on the inner half, and he’s in a good spot to leave the yard today.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Reds at Cubs, 7:11 p.m. ET

Elly De La Cruz remains one of baseball's most electrifying players, entering Saturday with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases and a .363 wOBA. His combination of elite bat speed and raw power gives him as much home run upside as anyone on the slate.

De La Cruz is at his best versus RHPs, and he will see Chicago Cubs right-hander Javier Assad, who owns a 4.15 ERA and relies on inducing weak contact rather than overpowering hitters. In Great American Ball Park — one of the league's most homer-friendly venues — that approach can quickly backfire against a hitter with De La Cruz's power. Overall this year, Assad is letting up 1.60 homers per nine.

As long as this game can dodge the rain, Elly is a top HR pick today.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 9:11 p.m. ET

Kyle Tucker enters today at .250/.349/.384 with a .733 OPS, 7 home runs, 47 RBIs and 6 stolen bases in 2026. He’s not having the typical power season we’re used to from him, but the matchup is still playable because the Arizona Diamondbacks are starting Brandon Pfaadt, a right-hander with a 4.84 ERA today at Dodger Stadium.

Pfaadt has surrendered 1.36 homers per nine since the start of last season. Over a small sample this year, lefty bats have owned him to the tune of a .392 wOBA and 2.52 homers per nine.

While Tucker’s output has been underwhelming, we know how talented he is, and I find these long HR odds appealing with Tucker in such a friendly matchup.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.