Home Run Picks Today: Jordan Walker and a Pair of +400 HR Bets

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Isaac Paredes +400
• Jordan Walker +420
• Mookie Betts +400

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Astros at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

As long as the rain holds off in DC, this is a superb spot for Isaac Paredes as he takes on veteran RHP Miles Mikolas.

In 2026, Mikolas has pitched to a 4.59 SIERA and lowly 13.2% strikeout rate while permitting 1.92 jacks per nine innings. Right-handed hitters have really pummeled him, with Mikolas letting up a .340 wOBA and 2.39 homers per nine in the split.

Paredes is having a nice campaign, popping 12 homers with a .342 wOBA. He's almost always been good at lifting the ball, and that's no different in 2026 as he owns a 47.5% fly-ball rate. All 12 of his dingers have come against right-handers, and he's in a good groove, racking up a .404 wOBA with three bombs over his past 81 plate appearances.

Lastly, the good times can continue once Mikolas is out of the game as the Washington Nationals' bullpen has given up the fourth-most homers per nine.

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Brewers at Cardinals, 7:46 p.m. ET

The weather is noteworthy in St. Louis, too, but for wind and not because of rain. The wind is blowing in from left at seven MPH. While that's obviously not ideal, I think the market may be factoring in the wind a bit too much, and I find Jordan Walker's HR odds appealing.

Shane Drohan, a southpaw, is on the bump for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he's thriving this year, producing a 24.5% strikeout rate and 3.62 SIERA. But he's allowed 1.17 tanks per nine to righties and is giving up a 39.8% fly-ball rate in the split. He's surrendered at least one home run in three of his past four outings.

Walker is having an excellent season. He's launched 20 homers already and owns a .377 wOBA. He's got good numbers in basically every split and has been particularly lethal with the platoon advantage, amassing a .411 wOBA and 54.8% hard-hit rate versus lefties. He's got six long-balls in only 91 plate appearances in the split.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Rockies at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Mookie Betts started slowly this year but has mostly gotten back on track, and I like his matchup versus Kyle Freeland.

A veteran left-hander, Freeland is missing more bats than usual but is still someone we can feel good about targeting in the dinger market as he's got a 4.19 SIERA and 19.2% K rate. Right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .415 wOBA and 2.26 taters per nine. He's allowed 16 HRs this season, 15 of which have come to righty bats. Despite playing his home games at Coors, Freeland has given up more homers per nine on the road (2.34) than at home (1.49).

Betts is swinging a hot bat at the moment. In June, he put up a .352 wOBA and five homers. He's got a .437 wOBA and three HRs over his last 44 plate appearances.

On top of all that, the Colorado Rockies' relievers have let up the third-most homers per nine.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.