Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Friday, June 12, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson (+390)
• Mookie Betts (+520)
• Rafael Devers (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Padres at Orioles, 7:06 p.m. ET

Gunnar Henderson is at home against a meh righty today as the Baltimore Orioles take on Griffin Canning.

Canning has been better than his 6.34 ERA suggests, but he hasn't been all that good, producing a 5.03 FIP and 4.48 expected ERA. He's given up six dingers in 32.2 innings -- all six of which have come to left-handed hitters.

Henderson is already up to 13 long-balls after finishing last year with 17 home runs. He raked at home against righties last year, generating a .394 wOBA in the split. While he hasn't homered over his past 65 plate appearances, Henderson can snap that drought today, and it doesn't hurt that the wind is blowing out to right.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Dodgers at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a delightful matchup tonight against southpaw Anthony Kay, and it puts Mookie Betts on my HR radar.

Kay's recent results have mostly been good. I'm not buying it. For the season, he owns a 16.5% K rate with a 5.86 expected ERA. He's getting rocked by right-handed hitters, permitting a .391 wOBA and 1.79 homers per nine in the split.

It's fair to be concerned about Betts. He had a down year in 2025 and is off to a slow start this season. But he's put up a career-best 53.8% fly-ball rate this year, and his batted-ball profile with the platoon advantage -- 43.8% hard-hit rate and 62.5% fly-ball rate -- is excellent.

Once Kay is removed from the contest, Betts will see a Chicago White Sox bullpen that ranks eighth-worst in reliever xFIP.

On top of all that, the wind is blowing out to left in Chicago.

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Cubs at Giants, 10:16 p.m. ET

From one struggling former Red Sox star to another, Rafael Devers is an appealing HR pick at these odds.

He's at home versus RHP Javier Assad. This is definitely Devers' preferred split as he's posted a .327 wOBA against righties and a .266 wOBA in lefty-lefty matchups. Seven of his nine home runs have come against right-handers, and he also has identical 44.4% marks in fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage.

Assad is really struggling to miss bats, recording a lowly 5.5% swinging-strike rate in a smaller sample this season. Left-handed hitters have amassed a .352 wOBA and 2.30 jacks per nine against him.

With two bombs over his past 24 plate appearances, Devers might be ready to take off, and I'm attracted to his home run odds tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.