Home Run Picks Today: Harper, PCA and a +500 Home Run Bet

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+285)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (+340)
• Iván Herrera (+500)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Blue Jays at Phillies, 6:06 p.m. ET

Veteran RHP Max Scherzer is getting the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and Scherzer is nowhere close to his vintage form. His numbers stand at 1-4 with a 7.92 ERA.

More importantly for this market, Scherzer had already surrendered 10 home runs in only 22 innings during that stretch. That is an enormous home-run rate (2.64 per nine), and Citizens Bank Park certainly isn't the venue where I want to trust him against an elite left-handed power bat.

Harper is having another really strong campaign, producing a .389 expected wOBA. He’s dominant at home versus RHPs, smacking 10 tanks in 155 plate appearances in the split en route to a .427 wOBA.

To make things even better, the wind is blowing out to right today in Philly.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Cubs at Royals, 7:11 p.m. ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong's offensive breakout has continued throughout 2026.

PCA has hit 26 bombs with a .365 expected wOBA. He’s got a .394 wOBA against right-handers, and he’ll see Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo tonight.

Lugo has struggled to a 4.65 SIERA and 18.1% K rate. Lefty bats have amassed a .351 wOBA against him along with a 40.5% hard-hit rate.

With a .533 wOBA and two home runs over his last 24 plate appearances, PCA is rolling, and he can continue his push for NL MVP with another dinger today in KC.

Iván Herrera to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Rockies at Cardinals, 7:16 p.m. ET

Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland enters Saturday with brutal 2026 numbers, including a 6.81 over 108.1 innings.

Even better for home run bettors, Freeland has surrendered 1.74 homers per nine innings overall and 2.17 per nine to right-handed hitters..

Herrera gets the platoon advantage and comes into Saturday with some momentum. He homered in Friday night's 3-2 win over Colorado, taking Ryan Feltner deep for a solo shot in the third inning. It was his 13 long-ball of the year.

Against lefties, Herrera owns a .352 wOBA and 38.8% hard-hit rate, and he’s in a good spot against a struggling Freeland.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.