Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Monday, July 27, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Brandon Lowe +340
• Bryce Harper +430
• Wilyer Abreu +320

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Diamondbacks at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Veteran RHP Merrill Kelly is having a tough time with lefty bats, and that puts Brandon Lowe in a great spot today.

Kelly is giving up a .378 wOBA against left-handed hitters while pitching to a 5.71 xFIP in the split. Lefties have gotten to him for 2.15 homers per nine in addition to a 41.0% hard-hit rate and 41.4% fly-ball rate.

That aligns really well with Lowe’s strengths. With the platoon advantage in 2026, Lowe has produced a .369 wOBA, 41.6% hard-hit rate and 43.7% fly-ball rate. Of his 21 bombs this season, 17 have come against RHPs.

Add in the wind blowing out to left-center, and Lowe is my favorite dinger pick today.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Phillies at Marlins, 6:41 p.m. ET

RHP Tyler Phillips is getting the ball today for the Miami Marlins, and I think that makes a few of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ sticks appealing. Bryce Harper is the one I’m most into.

Phillips has been tough on righties but is getting mauled by left-handed hitters, surrendering a .357 wOBA in the split. He’s also been in a funk, struggling to a 6.63 expected ERA over his last 31 innings — a seven-start span in which he’s given up seven long-balls.

Harper has posted a .380 wOBA with 21 jacks this campaign. He’s been elite versus righties, racking up a .412 wOBA, 43.0% hard-hit rate and 44.7% fly-ball rate. He’s got 21 homers this year, 18 of which have come against right-handers.

Once Phillips is out of the game, Harper will see a Miami bullpen that owns the 10th-worst xFIP over the last 30 days (4.41).

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Red Sox at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Athletics hurler Jack Perkins has some intriguing numbers, including a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and 3.58 SIERA. However, he’s letting up a 45.5% fly-ball rate, and that makes the A’s temporary home park a scary place for him.

At Sutter Health Park this year, Perkins is allowing a .358 wOBA and 1.85 home runs per nine.

Enter Wilyer Abreu.

One of the game’s more underrated hitters, Abreu has generated a .346 wOBA and 15 tanks this season. He’s got an excellent batted-ball profile against right-handers — 41.2% hard-hit rate and 52.0% fly-ball rate — and Abreu has four homers with a .388 expected wOBA over his previous 42 plate appearances.

To make things even better, the Athletics’ bullpen ranks dead last in xFIP over the past 30 days (4.95), and the wind is blowing out in Sacramento.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.