Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Monday, August 10, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jarren Duran (+480)
• Gunnar Henderson (+420)
• Yandy Diaz (+360)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Red Sox at Blue Jays, 7:06 p.m. ET

It’s been a mostly poor season for Jarren Duran. But he’s starting to show signs of life and has a delightful matchup against RHP Jameson Taillon.

For the year, Duran has struggled to a .267 wOBA. He’s starting to get going, though, producing a .347 wOBA in August with three home runs. Of his 16 tanks this year, 15 have come against right-handers, and he’s in a good spot against Taillon.

The new Toronto Blue Jays‘ righty owns a 4.49 SIERA and was released recently by the Chicago Cubs. He’s had a massive homer issue this year, letting up 2.93 long-balls per nine innings. Lefties have mauled him to the tune of 3.15 homers per nine and a .391 wOBA.

On top of that, the Jays’ bullpen ranks 10th-worst in reliever xFIP over the last 30 days.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Orioles at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

RHP Dean Kremer is set to face his former team, the Baltimore Orioles, tonight in Minnesota.

Kremer has some quality numbers in his profile, but he’s had a tough time against left-handed bats. In the split, he’s allowed a .376 wOBA, 2.55 jacks per nine and identical 42.5% fly-ball and hard-hit rates.

Enter Gunnar Henderson.

The O’s shortstop is suffering through a down campaign across the board. However, his batted-ball profile since the All-Star break looks pretty great, with Henderson boasting a 46.3% hard-hit rate and 44.4% fly-ball rate.

Making good contact of late and in a friendly matchup, Henderson can leave the yard tonight.

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Rays at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Rays are taking on a southpaw today (Jacob Lopez) and are at homer-happy Sutter Health Park. That pushes me toward Yandy Diaz in the dinger market.

Lopez flashed upside prior to 2026 but is having a rough year, struggling to a 5.06 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate. Righties have tattooed him for a .382 wOBA and 1.84 homers per nine. At home, he’s let up 1.72 HRs per nine overall.

Diaz is producing another really good season for Tampa Bay, racking up a .358 wOBA and 39.5% hard-hit rate. His fly-ball rate skyrockets to 41.1% against lefties — well above his 27.4% clip in righty-righty matchups.

The cherry on top is that the A’s bullpen has given up the fourth-most homers per nine (1.60) across the last 30 days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.