Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Dinger Tuesday (July 28)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda +450
• Jo Adell +450
• Jackson Merrill +450

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Rangers at Rays, 6:41 p.m. ET

Cal Quantrill is getting the ball for the Texas Rangers, and that has me interested in Jonathan Aranda to go yard.

Quantrill is struggling this season to the tune of a 5.02 SIERA and 13.9% strikeout rate. Lefties are obliterating him for a .378 wOBA, 49.4% fly-ball rate and 1.75 homers per nine innings.

Aranda has been outstanding versus RHPs this year, producing a .380 wOBA, 40.7% hard-hit rate and 41.2% fly-ball rate. He’s also been much more potent at home (.393 wOBA) than on the road (.323).

Once Quantrill departs, Aranda will see a Rangers bullpen that has the 10th-worst xFIP (4.44) this season.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Astros at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Right-hander Peter Lambert has made some improvements in his first season with the Houston Astros. But he’s not someone we should fear, and he’s showing some reverse splits. That pushes me toward Jo Adell in the HR market.

Lambert’s 4.27 SIERA is a career-best clip. However, he’s still letting up a 46.8% fly-ball rate. He’s been lucky not to give up more bombs as he’s sporting an 8.9% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is a good bit below his career average clip of 14.1%.

Right-handed hitters have a .327 wOBA against Lambert and have hit 1.66 jacks per nine along with a 50.4% fly-ball rate.

Adell hasn’t quite maintained his output from his superb 2025 season, but he’s good at getting the ball in the air, generating a 41.6% fly-ball rate. He’s scorching hot right now, too, racking up a .510 wOBA and three tanks over his previous 27 plate appearances.

The good times can keep coming once Lambert is pulled from the game as Houston’s bullpen sits eighth-worst in reliever xFIP (4.52).

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Rockies at Padres, 9:41 p.m. ET

I really like tonight’s matchup for Jackson Merrill.

He’s taking on righty Michael Lorenzen, the owner of a 4.78 SIERA and 16.2% K rate. Lorenzen is getting tagged by lefties for a .436 wOBA, 46.4% hard-hit rate and 2.08 homers per nine.

Merrill is starting to pick it up after a slow start to the campaign. Over his last 32 plate appearances, the San Diego Padres‘ outfielder has pieced together a .586 wOBA with five dingers. He had only 10 homers over 401 plate appearances this year before this hot stretch.

In a groove and boasting the platoon advantage versus a bleh righty, Merrill can stay hot today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.