🇩🇪 Germany vs Paraguay 🇵🇾 · Mon Jun 29 · 4:30PM ET · Gillette Stadium Foxborough MA · FS1
Germany -320 ML · -950 To Advance · O2.5 -142 · ~80°F · Winner vs SA/Canada in R16 M90 Jul 4
GER -950 Advance
PRY +600 Advance
✅
Lineups Confirmed · Official Sources · Released ~1hr Before Kickoff
Germany XI confirmed by DFB official release · Paraguay XI confirmed by Paraguayan FA · Both XIs published Yahoo Sports / OneFootball / BuliNews · June 29 2026
⚠️ Major Lineup Surprises vs Pre-Match Reports
🇩🇪 MUSIALA DROPPED — Undav starts in his place
Nagelsmann made two changes from the Ecuador game: Deniz Undav replaces Jamal Musiala in the right AM slot. Brown also starts in place of Raum at left back. Musiala moves to the bench. This directly affects anytime goalscorer odds — check FD for updated pricing.
🇵🇾 PARAGUAY 5-4-1 — Not the expected 4-4-2
Alfaro has gone with five at the back rather than the predicted 4-4-2. A 5-4-1 formation with five at the back. Bobadilla starts instead of Mauricio in midfield. Alderete is out entirely — Canale starts at centre-back. Almirón confirmed starting.
🇩🇪 Germany Confirmed XI — Roles, Notes & Betting Impact
1
Manuel Neuer GK
22nd World Cup start — equals German record held by Matthäus and Klose · Commanding sweeper-keeper
6
Joshua Kimmich RB
Pushes into central midfield under Nagelsmann · Long-range shooting specialist · SOT prop listed on FD
4
Jonathan Tah CB
Bayer Leverkusen CB · Deputising with Schlotterbeck out · Comfortable in possession
5
Antonio Rüdiger CB
Real Madrid CB · Germany's most experienced defender · Replaced Schlotterbeck (ankle, OUT tournament)
32
Nathaniel Brown LB · Replaces Raum
Young American-born LB · Was muscular doubt but cleared · Replaces Raum from Ecuador game
13
Felix Nmecha DM
Borussia Dortmund DM · Screens the back four · Second balls
22
Aleksandar Pavlović DM
Bayern Munich DM · Double pivot with Nmecha · Covers Kimmich's high runs
19
Leroy Sané RAM · Starting
Right AM · Direct wide threat · Scored vs Ecuador · Anytime +240 FD
⚠️
Deniz Undav CAM · SURPRISE STARTER — Replaces Musiala
Stuttgart forward · Scored the winner vs Ivory Coast as a sub · Nagelsmann chose him over Musiala for this knockout match · Anytime +145 FD (check FD for updated line) · FGS +450 · Late-arriving box runs are his trademark
10
Florian Wirtz LAM · Starting
Left AM · 4 tournament assists · Scores from range · Anytime +185 FD · Score or Assist prop on FD
🔥
Kai Havertz ST · False-9 CF
Germany's centre-forward · Scored vs Ivory Coast · Drops into pockets · Anytime +145 FD · FGS +450 · Top pick per analyst consensus
Nagelsmann made two changes from the team that lost 2-1 to Ecuador, with Nathaniel Brown and Deniz Undav starting at the expense of David Raum and Jamal Musiala. Musiala drops to the bench — a significant tactical decision. Undav's anytime at +145 (same price as Havertz) is now outstanding value as a confirmed starter facing Paraguay's deep 5-4-1 block.
Undav scored the winner against Ivory Coast as a substitute. His late-arriving box runs from the right of the AM line — arriving at the back post — are a genuine finishing threat. With Musiala on the bench, Undav and Havertz are the two joint-shortest anytime prices at +145. Check FD immediately for any updated Undav line.
🇵🇾 Paraguay — Confirmed Starting XI
🇵🇾 PARAGUAY · 5-4-1 · ALFARO · ⚠️ MORE DEFENSIVE THAN EXPECTED
2 clean sheets in group stage · Organisational backbone · Will face Germany's 7.3 SOT average
2
Juan Cáceres RWB
Right wing-back in the 5-4-1 · Can push forward · Will face Wirtz on the left
3
Gustavo Gómez CB · ⚠️ NOT Diego Gómez
Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras CB) starts — Diego Gómez (CM) remains suspended. Experienced centre-back anchoring the back 5
5
Junior Alonso CB
Atletico Madrid CB · Central in the back 5 · Paraguay's most accomplished central defender
17
José María Canale CB · Replaces Alderete (out)
Steps in with Alderete ruled out · Part of 3-CB core in the 5-4-1
⭐
Miguel Almirón RMF · Back from suspension
Newcastle winger · Counter-attack weapon · Pace behind Germany's high line · Main reason Paraguay O0.5 goals is -134 · Check FD for updated anytime odds
25
Ángel Bobadilla CM · Surprise starter
Starts instead of Mauricio · Central midfield defensive work rate vs Germany's volume
8
Andrés Cubas CM
Nottingham Forest CM · Workrate and pressing · Combative ball-winner
22
Matías Galarza CM
Genoa midfielder · Ball-carrier in transition · 3 goals in last 10 Paraguay appearances
⭐
Julio Enciso LMF · Starting
Brighton forward · Left of the midfield 4 · Rocket shot · Primary set-piece taker (D.Gómez susp.) · SOT +114 FD · Anytime goalscorer check FD
11
Gabriel Avalos ST · Lone striker
Paraguay's sole forward in the 5-4-1 · Must hold up play and link with Almirón's counter-attacks
⚡ Key Lineup News — Paraguay
5-4-1 — more defensive than expected: Five at the back — a clear signal to absorb Germany and counter through Almirón. This reinforces the Paraguay Corners U2.5 +108 prop even further.
⚠️ Gustavo Gómez (CB) starts — NOT Diego Gómez (suspended): Important clarification. The "Gomez" in the confirmed XI is Gustavo Gómez, the experienced Palmeiras centre-back. Diego Gómez the midfielder remains suspended. Gustavo Gómez considerably strengthens the back 5.
Alderete OUT — Canale starts: Omar Alderete (knee) is confirmed out entirely. José María Canale starts in the back 5.
Bobadilla replaces Mauricio: Ángel Bobadilla starts ahead of Mauricio in central midfield — presumably for defensive work rate against Germany's high-volume attacking midfield.
⚔️ Key Individual Match-Ups
⚠️ NEW — Undav vs Gustavo Gómez
Deniz Undav (CAM) vs Paraguay's back 5
With Musiala dropped, Undav now occupies the central AM role. His late-arriving box runs from the right AM slot — arriving at the back post — are his primary goal route. Against five defenders, he must time runs precisely, but the principle remains the same as his Ivory Coast winner.
GER edge
⚡ Counter-Attack Watch
Almirón pace vs Nathaniel Brown (LB)
With the 5-4-1 confirmed, Paraguay's plan is clear: Almirón carries at pace from the right when they win the ball. Brown at LB is Germany's least experienced defender. If Brown gets caught high, Almirón vs space behind him is the game's primary danger moment. Over -142 and Paraguay O0.5 -134 both hinge here.
Watch closely
🚩 Corners & Props Update
5-4-1 makes PRY Corners U2.5 even stronger
Five defenders and a flat 4 in midfield means Paraguay attack even less than their group stage average (0.67 corners/game, 2 total). This formation is built entirely to defend. Paraguay Corners U2.5 +108 is now arguably the strongest prop in the match.
Undav was +145 anytime in pre-match articles. Now confirmed starter, his odds may have shortened. Musiala's bench role means his anytime may have drifted longer. Check FD immediately for both before kickoff.
Confirmed lineups · Germany XI (4-2-3-1): Manuel Neuer; Joshua Kimmich, Jonathan Tah, Antonio Rüdiger, Nathaniel Brown; Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlović; Leroy Sané, Deniz Undav, Florian Wirtz; Kai Havertz — Source: Yahoo Sports / OneFootball / BuliNews June 29 2026 · Two changes from Ecuador: Brown replaces Raum (LB) · Undav replaces Musiala (CAM) · Musiala on bench · Paraguay XI (5-4-1): Orlando Gill; Juan Cáceres, Gustavo Gómez, Junior Alonso, José María Canale, [LWB]; Miguel Almirón, Ángel Bobadilla, Andrés Cubas, Matías Galarza, Julio Enciso; Gabriel Avalos — Source: OneFootball / Yahoo Sports June 29 2026 · Note: Gustavo Gómez (CB, Palmeiras) starts — Diego Gómez (CM) remains SUSPENDED · Omar Alderete CB RULED OUT · Nico Schlotterbeck OUT tournament (ankle) · FanDuel: Germany -320 ML / Germany advance -950 / O2.5 -142 / U2.5 +116 / BTTS Yes +108 / GER -1.5 AH -104 / Havertz anytime +145 / Undav anytime check FD for update / Wirtz anytime +185 / Enciso SOT +114 / Paraguay Corners U2.5 +108 / Total Corners O9.5 +105 · ~80°F Gillette Stadium Foxborough MA · R16 M90 Jul 4 1PM ET winner vs SA/Canada · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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