France vs Spain: Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Best Bets

World Cup 2026 Semifinal · Two Unbeaten Powerhouses · Euro 2024 Rematch · FanDuel odds

📖 Match Preview

This is the matchup that's been anticipated since the draw was made — the two top-ranked teams in the world, both still unbeaten, meeting in the semifinal. It's also a direct rematch of the Euro 2024 semifinal, which Spain won 2-1. France have been the tournament's most dominant force, sitting on a perfect 6-0-0 record after beating Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinal, a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semifinal. Kylian Mbappé — already sitting on 20 career World Cup goals, trailing only Messi — was subbed off in the 78th minute of that win after Morocco's Issa Diop caught his ankle. He's called it "a minor injury" and says he's "completely fine," with medical analysis suggesting a Grade 1 sprain, but it's a genuine subplot heading into Tuesday given how much France's attack runs through him. Michael Olise has quietly been the story of France's tournament: his 6 assists are the most of any player, one shy of Pelé's all-time single-tournament record.

Spain are back in the semifinals for the first time since they won the whole tournament in 2010, and they got here in dramatic fashion — Mikel Merino has now scored the decisive late goal in back-to-back knockout matches, a stoppage-time winner against Portugal in the Round of 16 and an 88th-minute winner against Belgium in the quarterfinal. Spain's defense had gone six consecutive matches without conceding — the longest streak in World Cup history — before finally being breached by Belgium. They remain unbeaten in 37 straight competitive matches dating back to March 2023. The lingering concern: both Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino suffered injuries in the same group-stage match and haven't played a minute since.

The individual storyline drawing the most attention is Lamine Yamal against his Real Madrid rival Mbappé — Yamal has had a genuinely quiet tournament by his standards, with just one goal and no further contributions since the group stage, though reports note he's "looked better with every match" since returning from an earlier injury. If he rediscovers his club form against Mbappé on this stage, Spain's ceiling rises considerably.

🩺 Team News & Injuries

📋 Predicted Lineups

📊 Key Stats & Head-to-Head

⭐ Best Bets — FanDuel

All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · 3-Way Moneyline (90 min): France +130 / Draw +210 / Spain +230 · 2 Up Early Payout: France +120 / Draw +220 / Spain +200 · To Qualify (reg+ET+pens): France -150 / Spain +122 · Anytime Goalscorer (top of board): Mbappé +115, Oyarzabal +200, Yamal +250, Dembélé +270, Olise +310, Doué +320, Barcola +330, Olmo +440 · To Score or Assist: Mbappé -135, Yamal +130, Olise +140, Oyarzabal +140, Dembélé +145 · Player 1+ SOT: Mbappé -550, Yamal -250, Oyarzabal -230, Olise -145, Dembélé -130, Doué -130 · First Goalscorer: Mbappé +360, Oyarzabal +600, Yamal +750, Dembélé +800, Olise +950, Doué +950 · Correct Score: France 1-0 +750, Draw 0-0 +1100, Spain 0-1 +1000, France 2-0 +1200, Draw 1-1 +500, Spain 0-2 +1800, France 2-1 +750, Draw 2-2 +1000, Spain 1-2 +1000 · BTTS Yes -164 / No +128 · O/U 1.5: -370 / +280 · O/U 2.5: -112 / -108 · O/U 3.5: +225 / -290 · Anytime Assist: Yamal +290, Olise +290, Mbappé +320, Dembélé +360, Doué +370 · Kylian Mbappe carrying a minor ankle knock from the Morocco win, expected to play · Aurelien Tchouameni still not fully fit · Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino both out for Spain since the group stage · AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium), Arlington TX · Tuesday, July 14, kickoff 3:00 PM ET · FOX/Telemundo · Winner faces the Norway/England vs Argentina/Switzerland winner in the Final · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER