Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

6mo

Week 9 ushers in another round of byes with the Broncos, Lions, 49ers, and Jaguars all off this week.

Off the top of my head, that means we're missing at least two starting quarterbacks, four running backs, three tight ends, and as many as seven wide receivers.

Yikes.

Add in the multitude of quarterback injuries that happened last week and fantasy lineups are looking pretty grim in Week 9.

But don't worry, this piece has you covered.

Every week I'll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire's projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 9

Quarterback

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Dak Prescott (DAL) turned in his second consecutive top-three QB finish in Week 8. He's now scored 24.9 and 29.1 points across his last two games -- his two highest-scoring weeks of the season. The Eagles are a tough matchup on paper, but they've quietly allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.42) to opposing quarterbacks and were just torched by Sam Howell. Dak's a borderline must-start.
Derek Carr (NO) has been the definition of solid in fantasy the last three weeks. He's finished as the QB10 (17.3 points), QB9 (18.4), and QB13 (18.3) over that span. The matchup is mouthwatering in Week 9, as the Bears have allowed the third-highest passing success rate (51.6%) and the second-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.49). Having already demonstrated a consistent floor, Carr is a top quarterback streamer in Week 9.
Sam Howell (WSH) just keeps putting up numbers. He dropped a career-best 32 points against the Eagles last week and now leads all active quarterbacks with 38.5 pass attempts per game. Given that the Commanders are passing at the second-highest rate over expectation (8.5%), Howell merits starting consideration against a Patriots defense that has allowed the 10th-highest passing success rate (48.6%) and the 6th-highest EPA per dropback (0.06).

Tier 3: On the Fence

C.J. Stroud (HOU) has come down to Earth over his last three outings with 14.1 points per game. He's attempted just 28.7 passes per game over that span -- 23rd in the league and a far cry from the 37.8 he attempted from Weeks 1-4. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.32), but they're also giving up the 11th-highest EPA per dropback (-0.01). He's a floor play.
Bryce Young (CAR) is trending up, averaging 15.8 points per game across his last three. It was encouraging to see a season-high 7.6 yards per attempt in Carolina's first game with Thomas Brown calling plays, but he did attempt a season-low 31 passes in the win. Still, Young gets easily his best matchup of the season this week. The Colts have allowed the most raw points per game (28.6) and the 10th-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.41).
Gardner Minshew (IND) has averaged 17.4 points per game in his four starts this season. Granted, that's inflated by a 28.1-point outing, but he hasn't totaled fewer than 12.6 points in any of his four starts. Minshew's upside is capped with the Colts passing at the lowest rate over expectation (-5.6%), but there's some touchdown upside considering Indy's 23.5-point implied team total and Carolina's below-average pass defense.
Jordan Love (GB) hasn't been great in real life his past three games, but he's only scored fewer than 15 fantasy points once this season. Among qualified QBs, Love ranks second in air yards per game (313.2) and first in aDOT (9.4), but an atrocious -6.1 completion rate over expectation has hindered his consistency. The Rams have allowed the 10th-highest EPA per dropback (0.00) and a pedestrian 47.1% passing success rate, so the matchup isn't horrible if you're in a pinch.
Will Levis (TEN) could not have asked for a better debut. He finished as the QB6 (26.6) thanks to 238 yards, four touchdowns, and no turnovers. It's more than risky to play him on a short week in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers have quietly allowed the fourth-most deep yards (1,050) in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. He's a lotto ticket.

Tier 4: Sit

Geno Smith (SEA) is the only quarterback that we'd normally consider who I'm absolutely staying away from in Week 9. Geno has finished inside the top 15 at the position just once this season and has now thrown five interceptions to four touchdowns in his last three games. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.30) on the year and opposing QBs have averaged just 11.1 fantasy points per game in Baltimore this season. Swing for more upside.

Running Back

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Chuba Hubbard (CAR) out-snapped Miles Sanders 40-12 and out-rushed him 15-2 last week, adding two receptions for good measure. That only translated to 6.4 fantasy points, but the workload was stellar. Assuming the usage holds, Hubbard is in line for a strong outing against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.67) and the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.19) to opposing running backs
Darrell Henderson & Royce Freeman (LAR) split snaps nearly 50-50, but Henderson saw 18 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) to Freeman's 9. Still, Freeman punched in a score to ensure both backs scored in the double digits. With Matt Stafford banged up, expect a heavy dose of the run game against a Packers defense that sits in the bottom 10 in RB rush success rate (44.4%), EPA per carry (-0.02), and adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.62).
Zack Moss (IND) keeps producing, even as his snap share dwindles (down to a season-low 38.8% in Week 8). There's a chance his work completely dries up, but if the opportunities are there against the Panthers, I'm optimistic. Carolina has allowed the most adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.85) and the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.35) to opposing running backs. Moss has multiple paths to fantasy relevance.
Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (CLE) ceded work to Pierre Strong in Week 8, but that likely had more to do with Ford's ankle than Cleveland harboring a three-man backfield. Assuming Ford's closer to 100%, I expect him and Hunt to split work pretty evenly as Strong shifts back to a change-of-pace role. Arizona has allowed the highest RB rush success rate (49.5) in the NFL, so both could feast with the Browns opening as 7.5-point home favorites.
Aaron Jones (GB) has to produce eventually. Right? Jones actually saw his highest snap share of the season (48.4%) last week, but that translated to just 8.8 points. Still, he received 17 adjusted opportunities and a 12.5% target share -- numbers that should lead to a better fantasy outing against a Rams defense that's middle of the pack against the run.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Alexander Mattison (MIN) had a touchdown vultured by Cam Akers last week but still played 62.3% of the snaps compared to Akers' 21.7%. There's a chance the league's fourth-most pass-happy offense turns to the ground with Kirk Cousins sidelined, but there's also a chance the offense just completely sputters. Mattison's seen 21.3 adjusted opportunities per game since Justin Jefferson went down, but the Falcons give up the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.46) to RBs. The usage makes him startable, but temper expectations.
Brian Robinson (WSH) now has as many single-digit fantasy weeks (four) as he does double-digit weeks (also four). While he still hasn't eclipsed a 59% snap share this season, he also hasn't finished outside the top 32 at the position. That floor will come in handy against a Pats defense allowing the lowest RB rush success rate (32.6%) in the NFL. There isn't a lot of upside here barring a touchdown.
D'Onta Foreman & Roschon Johnson (CHI) was always going to be a frustrating fantasy situation, but Chicago turned this into a true running back by committee with Darrynton Evans playing 27% of snaps. All three backs saw double-digit adjusted opportunities and the Saints' defense is solid, but I'm still bullish enough on Johnson's talent to consider him in a pinch.
Jaylen Warren & Najee Harris (PIT) saw 15 and 17 adjusted opportunities last week while splitting carries right down the middle. It was encouraging for Najee's stock that he saw five targets (a season-high). Less encouraging was his 13 rushing yards on seven attempts. Warren (five for 19) wasn't much better, but he at least has a track record for passing game work. He's seeing 4.6 targets (14.4% share) per game and thus has more fantasy appeal against a tough Titans defense.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) is among the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy. With Ken Walker banged up, Charbonnet played a career-high 56.4% of snaps, turning five carries into 53 yards and catching both of his targets in the process. Baltimore is great against the run, and Walker could see more run this week, but at the very least we know the rookie is good -- something I can't say with confidence about a lot of names this far down.
Tyjae Spears (TEN) fits a similar mold as Charbonnet, he's just been doing it longer. Spears actually saw his lowest snap share (43.9%) since Week 2 in their win over Atlanta, but he still received double-digit opportunities thanks to four targets. He ran more routes than Henry despite the snap discrepancy, so a negative game script would (in theory) put Spears on the FLEX radar. The Titans are 2.5-point underdogs, but the Steelers haven't exactly gotten out to big leads this season.
Justice Hill (BAL) played just eight fewer snaps than Gus Edwards last week, but he saw just one red zone carry (compared to Edwards' six). He continues to run more routes and command a higher target share than Gus, but the Ravens' success hasn't put them in a lot of negative game scripts. This feels like the name-brand version of Pittsburgh's backfield. I'm optimistic Seattle will give Baltimore a game, so Hill has some value this week.

Tier 4: Sit

Devin Singletary & Dameon Pierce (HOU) split snaps (23-24) and opportunities (14-12) last week, but they both had a goal-line score sapped up by fullback Andrew Beck. That doesn't instill much confidence in either back going forward, but the three combining for six red zone rushes at least shows some touchdown upside. Still, I prefer to sit them both against a Bucs front that has the largest gap (-31.8) between expected (135.8) and actual (104) fantasy points allowed to the position.
Emari Demercado (ARI) has seen 22 and 23 adjusted opportunities in the last two weeks. He's played 66.9% of snaps over that span and is clearly the Arizona back to roster, especially when Kyler comes back. This week, however, Clayton Tune will make his first career start on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Browns have allowed the fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.45) to running backs, relegating Demercado to your bench unless you're absolutely desperate.
Miles Sanders (CAR) is clearly Chubba Hubbard's backup. I wouldn't cut him (yet), but there is surely a better name on the waiver wire.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) doesn't have much stand-alone value with Bijan Robinson healthy and the Vikings giving up the fifth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry (0.48). I'd chase more upside.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Amari Cooper (CLE) produced on the road last week and now returns home to take on an Arizona defense allowing the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.57) to the position. Cooper's been inconsistent, but he's commanded at least a 20% target share in every game this season and continues to run a route on over 85% of Cleveland's dropbacks. You can trust him this week.
Josh Downs (IND) is a borderline must-start at this point, having eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in each of his last four games. He cleared 80% of Indy's snaps for the first time last week and posted a 20% target share for the fourth time in six games. Carolina allows the seventh-most yards per route run (1.85) and the eighth-highest aDOT (11.4) to wideouts, so make sure Downs is in your lineup.
Chris Godwin (TB) finally caught a touchdown last week, but I'm more intrigued by his 17.9% target share. Though it was actually his lowest share of the season, it was also the highest mark on the Buccaneers -- the third time in four weeks he's led the way. Houston has been relatively stingy against wide receivers, but Godwin's floor/ceiling combination is too high to sit.
Gabriel Davis (BUF) played a different role with Dawson Knox out last week. It did him a lot of favors fantasy-wise, as he turned in his best performance of the season. He tied Stefon Diggs for the team lead in target share (30.8%) and route participation (100%). If you're running a route on 100% of Josh Allen's dropback, you have a spot in my fantasy lineup, especially with Buffalo's 23-point implied team total this week.
Rashid Shaheed & Michael Thomas (NO) play the same position on the same team, yet have entirely opposite fantasy profiles. Thomas continues to provide a steady floor -- he's yet to finish with fewer than seven points, but also doesn't have more than 12 in any week. Meanwhile, Shaheed has scored 16-plus points three times but has also failed to reach seven points on four occasions. This week, deciding between the two isn't difficult. Start them both against a Bears defense that's dead last against the pass, according to numberFire's nERD-based metrics.
Nico Collins (HOU) has cooled off after a torrid first four weeks, but he still dominated Houston's target (25%) and air yard (44.5%) shares with Tank Dell back. Commanding nearly seven targets a game while posting an 11.8 aDOT puts you into weekly starting conversation. That's especially true against a Tampa Bay secondary that was just blitzed by Buffalo and allows the eighth-most yard per route run (1.79) to opposing wide receivers.
Rashee Rice (KC) trends up a little further on this list every week, but he's still searching for a true breakout performance. That'll come soon enough, as Rice led Kansas City's receivers in snaps (35), targets (5), and routes (25) for the first time in Week 8. The overseas games can be funky, but it's hard not to be optimistic about his chances this week given their week-high 50.5-point total.

Tier 3: On the Fence

D.J. Moore (CHI) did not enjoy Tyson Bagent: The Sequel nearly as much as the original. After seeing a 32.1% target share in Bagent's first start, Moore's share dipped to 16.2% last week -- his lowest since Week 1. The Saints are very familiar with Moore dating back to his Carolina days, and Bagent didn't inspire much confidence last week. He's not an auto-sit, but I'm not thrilled to start him.
Drake London (ATL) got banged up last week and consequently only played 54.5% of Atlanta's snaps. If he's cleared for Week 9, London would be in a good spot to produce against a Vikings secondary that allows the third-highest target rate (23%) and the sixth-most yards per route run (1.88) to wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) had a pretty unbelievable Week 8, securing four of six targets for 128 yards and a whopping three touchdowns. I'm not banking on that happening again, but he was due for some TD luck. While Will Levis is a huge question mark, there's upside against the Steelers. They've given up the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.52) to wideouts.
George Pickens (PIT) saved his day with a touchdown but secured just one of his five targets. He and Diontae Johnson both produced the week prior, so I won't go as far as to say Pickens isn't fantasy-viable, but the floor is clearly lower. Thankfully, the ceiling is pretty high this week. Tennesee has allowed the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points and the third-most yards per route run (1.95) to wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers (LV) is certainly risky, but I like him to bounce back with Josh McDaniels canned and Jimmy G benched. He only saw a 10.5% target share in Aidan O'Connell's first start but caught a touchdown from him in Week 7. The Giants have surrendered the fourth-most yards per route run (1.90) and the highest target rate (23.3%) to wide receivers, so there's sneaky upside here.
Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) both enjoyed solid Week 8 performances, albeit through different lanes. Lockett saw his second-highest target share (25%) of the season and tied his season-high with eight receptions, while JSN caught a touchdown for the second consecutive week. Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (1.09) to wide receivers, but there's enough upside in a negative game script for both players to deliver FLEX-worthy weeks.
Jordan Addison (MIN) takes a huge hit with Kirk Cousins out. He's led the Vikings with a 20.9% target share over the last four weeks and has upside against a Falcons D giving up the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.57) but remains a risky play with Jaren Hall under center.
Brandin Cooks & Michael Gallup (DAL) have upside with a 46-point total and Dallas being a three-point underdog. Philly has given up the second-highest WR target rate (23%), and they're both running a route on more than 75% dropbacks. Despite that, both remain fringe FLEX plays as clear second options to CeeDee Lamb.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) hauled in a score for the second consecutive game last week but saw his target share dwindle to a season-low 9.4%. His upside takes a hit with Tee Higgins getting healthier, but Cincy's second-ranked 25.5-point implied team total retains Boyd's touchdown upside.
Tank Dell (HOU) was quiet in his return to action but notably ran a route on 92.3% of CJ Stroud's dropbacks. He flashed a ton of potential earlier in the season and has upside against a Buccaneers defense allowing the most slot points per game (22.4), per Razzball.

Tier 4: Sit

Marquise Brown (ARI) scored a late touchdown to salvage his fantasy performance, but he's now been held under 50 yards in three consecutive games after eclipsing that mark each of the previous four weeks. The Browns have allowed the lowest catch rate (51.2%) and the seventh-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (1.29) to receivers, relegating Hollywood to the bench in Clayton Tune's first career start.
Josh Palmer & Quentin Johnston (LAC) combined for a 25.8% target share in Week 8. I'm bullish on them rest of season, but you can fade both in Week 9. The Jets have held opposite wide receivers to the lowest target rate (15.7%) and the fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (0.93).
K.J. Osborn (MIN) has all the downside of Jordan Addison, but none of the upside in Week 9. He's an easy sit despite the soft matchup.
Jahan Dotson & Curtis Samuel (WSH) play second fiddle to Terry McLaurin in this Washington offense, so it's hard to trust either in a tough matchup against the Patriots. That said, New England has allowed a 20.6% target share to receivers, so there's upside with Dotson if Samuel is limited.
Romeo Doubs & Christian Watson (GB) have a sneaky-tough matchup against the Rams and haven't been anything close to reliable this season. Doubs has touchdown upside, and Watson is a threat to break off a big play at a moment's notice, but there are too many viable WRs this week to warrant trusting them.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Jake Ferguson (DAL) is coming off his best fantasy performance (12.7 points) of the season and faces an Eagles defense allowing the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.71) to tight ends. He's almost a must-start in a brutal week for tight ends.
David Njoku (CLE) may be better in fantasy without Deshaun Watson. With Watson out of the picture, Njoku has garnered a 21.2% target share and averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals have strong numbers against tight ends, but they're a soft defense overall.
Cole Kmet (CHI) bounced back in Tyson Bagent's second start, commanding a 27% target share and totaling 79 yards. The Saints have been pretty middle of the pack against tight ends, but they've surrendered the highest aDOT (8.3) to them. There's upside in a negative game script as long as the usage remains strong.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) is a pretty sound floor play this week, regardless of who's starting at quarterback. Pitts has hovered around an 18.2% target share all season and, although he only saw two targets with Taylor Heinicke under center, should produce against a Vikings defense allowing a 75.5% catch rate to tight ends.
Trey McBride (ARI) exploded for 20.5 points, commanding a 38.9% target share in his first game without Zach Ertz. Obviously, he won't sustain that, and Clayton Tune making his first career start in Cleveland doesn't give McBride a very high floor. However, the Browns have been vulnerable to tight ends, so I'd be hard-pressed to fade him after last week.
Taysom Hill (NO) is the TE2 (15.2 points per game) over the last three weeks. Even with Juwan Johnson returning to eat into Taysom's route participation, the Swiss Army knife had his best fantasy performance of the year. He has a ton of touchdown upside against the Bears with New Orleans boasting a 24.25-point implied team total.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Logan Thomas (WSH) had another strong outing last week and scored his second-most fantasy points (13.4) of the season. The Pats have been pretty stingy, and Thomas' usage fluctuates, but he'd be a must-start if Curtis Samuel couldn't go. For now, he's merely a dart throw.
Darren Waller (NYG) suffered a different hamstring injury than he'd previously missed time with last week, and his status for Week 9 is uncertain. If he does play, Waller would be a smash start. The Raiders give up the ninth-highest target rate (18.8%) to tight ends, and it's a revenge game. Pay attention to his status leading up to Sunday.
Luke Musgrave (GB) continues to play a ton of snaps (74.2% last week) and run a good number of routes (62.2%), but he saw his lowest target share of the season (7.5%) against the Vikings. While the Rams surrender the most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.81) to tight ends, Musgraves's inconsistent usage makes him difficult to trust.
Cade Otton (TB) is a sneaky tight end streamer if you're desperate this week. Otton has run a route on 89.8% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks over the last three weeks and he now faces a Texans team allowing the third-highest target rate (21.7%) and fourth-most yards per route run (1.63) to the position.

Tier 4: Sit

Gerald Everett & Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) don't have much appeal if they're both active. Even with Everett out last week, Parham saw just 13.2% of LA's targets. The Jets have allowed the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.55) to tight ends, but they've also held them to the sixth-lowest aDOT (5.7). Avoid this TE timeshare.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.