Fantasy Football: Can Christian Kirk Recapture Last Year's Breakout?

Christian Kirk played a critical role in the Jacksonville Jaguars' turnaround last year. He led the team across the board in receiving, catching 84 passes for 1,108 yards and 8 touchdowns as their top pass-catching option. But can he repeat his strong 2022 performance this year after the Jags added former Atlanta Falcons star Calvin Ridley to the mix?

Christian Kirk Fantasy Football Projection

All projections via numberFire.com.

2023 Fantasy Points Projection: 188.7 (199.9 in 202)
numberFire Positional Ranking: WR22
2023 Projected Stats:

• 125.4 targets
• 82.5 receptions
• 1,064.5 receiving yards
• 6.2 receiving touchdowns

Christian Kirk Fantasy Football Outlook

A Career Year in Jacksonville

The Jaguars turned a lot of heads when they signed Kirk to a 4-year, $72 million contract heading into the 2022 season. At the time, Kirk was coming off of a career-best year that produced 982 yards and 5 touchdowns off of 77 receptions. The contract far outweighed his production up until that point, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can now clearly see that the Jaguars had an effective plan in mind for Kirk.

The plan? To keep Kirk lined up in the slot. In Kirk's five years in the league, he has been far more productive as a slot receiver than as an outside receiver. The 2021 and 2022 seasons were easily Kirk's most productive years, overlapping with his two most slot-focused campaigns; he ran 78.6% of his routes from the slot in 2021 with the Cardinals and then 75.2% of his routes from the slot with the Jags in 2022. The Cardinals had stubbornly insisted on using Kirk on the outside in his first three seasons in the league, never letting his slot rate eclipse 41.6% in any season. Fortunately, it doesn't seem like the Jaguars are keen to make the same mistake.

A New Jaguar Enters the Picture

Kirk's slot-focused role and production in Jacksonville's offense should stay relatively safe despite the addition of Calvin Ridley to their ranks. Ridley is capable of running routes from the slot but operates primarily as an outside, boundary receiver. If last season was any indicator, the Jaguars under head coach Doug Pederson seem to understand what their receivers do best and deploy them in ways that emphasize those strengths.

Basically, Ridley's presumed production in Jacksonville shouldn't come at Kirk's cost. Ridley will at least be a one-for-one replacement for free agent departure Marvin Jones, who lined up on the outside for 85.9% of his routes last year. The veteran caught 46 of his 81 targets last year, posting 529 yards and 3 scores on those opportunities. We should expect Ridley to both earn more opportunities in that role and to be more efficient with those opportunities than Jones was last year, which bodes well for Jacksonville's offense overall without sapping too much volume from Kirk.

Ridley's arrival would presumably impact Zay Jones' production more than it would Kirk's. Zay Jones lined up outside on 66.4% of his routes last year and put up 77.3% of his total receiving yards last season on those outside routes. Ridley becoming a threat on the outside puts Jones in a bind; the Jags will have better options on the outside (Ridley) and in the slot (Kirk), meaning his production could get pinched in 2023.

How Does Kirk Fit Into Fantasy Drafts?

If we're going off of numberFire's projections, Kirk's production this year should look relatively similar to last year's. We could make cases for his production to move in either direction. He could see fewer targets with Ridley in the offense, or Ridley's addition could be a rising tide that lifts all ships, but given that his role doesn't seem likely to change all that much, we shouldn't be expecting a massive swing in either direction. If that holds true, where should Kirk go in 2023 fantasy drafts?

Based on those numbers, Kirk seems like a safe-floor, low-upside pick in fantasy this year. We can't expect him to suddenly become a WR1 with added competition, but he plays an important role on a good offense led by an emerging star in Trevor Lawrence. According to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Kirk has been drafted on average as the WR30 in drafts this summer and has an ADP around the 75th overall pick (a sixth-rounder in a typical 12-team league).

In other words, Kirk is looking like a roster-dependent sixth-round pick this year. If you spent early draft capital at the running back position and need to lock in some guaranteed production from your wide receivers, Kirk becomes an appealing option as a top target in the Jaguars' exciting offense. If you're happy to lock in weekly WR2-level production with your sixth-round pick, Kirk makes more sense than volatile options like Christian Watson in the same areas of drafts.

Kirk makes less sense for rosters that lean heavily into wide receivers in the early rounds of drafts -- if, for example, you draft Tyreek Hill in the first round and follow him up with Davante Adams in the second round, Kirk's steady WR2 production starts to look pretty redundant. Teams like that, who already have elite WR production locked into their lineups, would benefit more by taking potential breakout candidates like
George Pickens (WR31) or Brandon Aiyuk (WR27) around the sixth round of drafts than they would from finding a WR2 to fit into their flex positions.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.