Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates for Week 7

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which running backs should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics mentioned are via NextGenStats or Pro Football Focus unless stated otherwise.

Running Backs to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Quinshon Judkins, Browns

The bad news is that the Cleveland Browns fell to 1-5 after losing 23-9 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game where rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel threw the ball 52 times, which resulted in Quinshon Judkins handling just a 41.3% snap rate and 12 touches in Week 6. The good news is that the Browns now get to face a 1-5 Miami Dolphins squad in Week 7, putting Judkins in a premier bounce-back spot.

Across the three previous weeks before Week 6, Judkins logged a 57.1% snap rate, 73.7% red-zone rushing share, 26.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game, and 112.7 scrimmage yards per game. While Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson are both seeing snaps in two-minute drills and obvious passing situations, Judkins can take advantage of a Miami team that is 30th in schedule-adjusted run defense, especially with the Browns being favored at home.

Additionally, the Dolphins are permitting the second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.53) and most explosive runs (runs of 10-plus yards; 25) to the running back position.

Jordan Mason, Vikings

While the best time to buy low on Jordan Mason in fantasy football would've been before the Minnesota Vikings had their bye week in Week 6, he's positioned well to have a productive performance in Week 7 versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

In his first game as the starter sans Aaron Jones in Week 3, Mason scored 23.6 fantasy points with 116 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 touches and a 60.3% snap rate.

Even though Mason has tallied fewer than 12 fantasy points in back-to-back outings, he still posted a 66.2% snap rate, 100.0% red-zone rushing share, 64.0 scrimmage yards per game, and 17.5 touches per game in that two-game sample.

Aside from the Eagles ranking 25th in schedule-adjusted run defense (and 8th in schedule-adjusted pass defense), they are 26th in rushing touchdowns (6), 26th in rushing success rate (45.7%), and 28th in explosive run plays allowed (17) to running backs this year.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders

Following a Week 5 performance where Jacory Croskey-Merritt exploded for 150 scrimmage yards and 2 scores on a season-high 49.1% snap rate, everyone assumed he was primed for another stellar outing in Week 6 -- only for him to notch just 5.3 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears. Despite the lack of production, it was a major positive to see Croskey-Merritt garner a new season-high snap rate (66.7%) and handle 18 of the 21 touches by Washington Commanders running backs in the loss to the Bears.

Upon facing a Chicago team that has improved to 12th in schedule-adjusted run defense, JCM will now have the luxury of facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that is 27th in schedule-adjusted run defense. On top of that, the Cowboys are sitting at 28th in fantasy points per target (1.51), 25th in rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.70), 32nd in rushing success rate (50.4%), and 31st in explosive runs allowed (21) to running backs through the first six weeks of the campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.