FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 11/4/23
We've got an interesting six-game slate in the Premier League this week.
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
EPL DFS Picks
Bournemouth (+2300) at Manchester City (-1050)
Over 2.5 Goals: -334 | Most Likely to Score: Erling Haaland (-240)
West Ham (+240) at Brentford (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: -139| Most Likely to Score: Bryan Mbeumo (+155)
Brighton (+115) at Everton (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -200 | Most Likely to Score: Evan Ferguson (+180)
Crystal Palace (+160) at Burnley (+185)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Ossane Edouard (+210)
Wolves (-105) at Sheffield United (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: -117 | Most Likely to Score: Matheus Cunha (+195)
Arsenal (+145) at Newcastle (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: -113 | Most Likely to Score: Callum Wilson (+240)
We have another slate where the main decision point is how you want to handle Manchester City. They are once again giant favorites, this time at home against Bournemouth.
We'll start with Erling Haaland ($25, -240 any time goal scoring odds), who is implied to have better than a 70% chance of scoring at these odds. He has scored three more goals than any other player in the league this season. It's been well deserved, as he also has nearly three more expected goals (xG) than any other player, according to FBRef's model.
We also have to look at some other Man City players. Julian Alvarez ($23,+100) has gotten up there in salary, but he's a goal threat who remains on set pieces, which makes him viable even at this lofty tag.
Phil Foden ($21, +170) also gets some set pieces, and Jack Grealish ($17, +220) would be the best value if he started. It's completely reasonable to play up to three of these players in lineups if you can make the salaries work.
No other team is even close to as big of a favorite as City. Because of this, we should be more OK than normal with using one-offs.
Bryan Mbeumo ($21, +180) has been absolutely on fire of late. He has six goals and the most set pieces taken by anyone on Brentford. He now gets a matchup against West Ham, who have allowed the third-most xG in the Premier League.
James Ward-Prowse ($19, +460) has taken over as West Ham's set-piece taker since joining the club. He averages 26.3 FanDuel points per game and has just two goals contributing to that. That includes games against Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle.
Wolves aren't a great team by any means, but they are in a good spot against Sheffield United. So far this campaign, the Blades have been one of the worst teams we've ever seen in the Premier League. Matheus Cunha ($18, +195) and Hwang Hee-Chan ($18, +240) are both good options, while Sasa Kalajdzic ($15, +195) is probably the best value on the team.
Brighton aren't overwhelming favorites but are a fantasy-friendly team and should have enough to see off Everton. Seagulls to target include Evan Ferguson ($20, +180), Pascal Gross ($20, +155 to score or assist), and Joao Pedro ($17, + 135 to score or assist). Gross has a monopoly of set pieces with Solly March out injured, so he makes a lot of sense from a floor/ceiling perspective.
Added time -- There are some modest-salaried set-piece takers available. Oliver Norwood ($14, +480 to score or assist) will take corner kicks for Sheffield United and also gets defensive stats with how often the Blades get caved into their own half. Will Hughes ($13, +400) should get corners for Crystal Palace with Eberechi Eze injured. Another solid player in this range is Marcus Tavernier ($13, +420), but his matchup against Man City is much worse.
On this slate, there aren't many of the attacking full-backs we usually like to target. The only one is Kieran Trippier ($15), but the matchup with Arsenal is less than ideal.
Since we'd expect Wolves to be able to attack in this game, their full-backs are definitely defenders to target. Nelson Semedo ($12) and Toti Gomes ($10) are expected to be the traditional full-backs, while Rayan Ait-Nouri ($11) is expected to play as a winger but is listed as a defender on FanDuel.
Emerson ($11) will return for West Ham and is a defender who likes to get forward from left-back. Joel Ward ($10) and Nathaniel Clyne ($9) aren't the most attacking full-backs, but they are in a good spot for Palace against Burnley.
The best value among full-backs is Aaron Hickey ($8) of Brentford. We can expect the Bees to be able to attack in this game, so saving salary with Hickey is a great approach to the position.
Added time -- Kyle Walker ($10) and Ruben Dias ($10) are both midrange options playing for the team likely to score the most goals on the slate, Man City.
The obvious play at goalkeeper is Ederson ($13). His salary isn't too bad given his great matchup. Man City are gigantic favorites and are -165 to keep a clean sheet.
Brentford have allowed the fifth-fewest xG in the league, so Mark Flexen ($11) is my favorite midrange play.
James Trafford ($10) isn't a bad option with Crystal Palace in the bottom five in terms of xG created.
Added time -- In the same vein as Trafford, Wes Foderingham ($8) faces a Wolves side that isn't exactly free-scoring. He's unlikely to give up too many goals and saves salary at the most random position in EPL DFS.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.