FanDuel Single-Game NBA DFS Picks and Helper: Nuggets at Timberwolves (5/16/24)

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves single-game slate on FanDuel.

NBA Single-Game DFS Picks for Nuggets-Timberwolves

Game 6 Preview

Date and Time: Thursday, May 16th at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Timberwolves -2 (-114)

Total: 205.0 (-108/-112)

All NBA odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change.

Studs to Target

Nikola Jokic ($16,500) -- Nikola Jokic's Game 5 performance was one for the ages. The Joker racked up 40 points, 7 rebounds, and 13 assists in the win, shooting 15-of-22 from the floor and 2-of-3 from three en route to 76.9 FanDuel points (FPs). With that outing, Jokic is now averaging 69.4 FPPG over the last three games -- all Denver wins. He figures to be uber-popular in the 2x MVP slot, but I can't recommend being contrarian here. He's by far our highest-projected player tonight, and his 60-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate, too (3.64 FPs per $1,000). Don't overthink it.

Anthony Edwards ($15,000) -- But if you want to overthink it, Anthony Edwards is the obvious next-in-line choice for your MVP slot. ANT was quiet in Game 5, attempting just 15 shots and finishing with 35.3 FPs. Still, Edwards has already popped for 60 FPs twice this series, so we know the upside is there. Though Denver has picked things up in the last three games, this is the biggest game of the young star's career. I wouldn't be shocked to see him rise to the occasion. ANT is the contrarian play at the 2x multiplier.

Mid-Range Options

Jamal Murray ($13,500) -- Minnesota has kept Jamal Murray under wraps this series. He's averaging just 32.3 FPPG and has notched 40 FPs only twice. But both games came in Minnesota, so I don't mind him in either the 1.5x STAR or 1.2x PRO slots. While this has been a rough matchup for him, we've seen Murray produce against top-flight defenses in the past. He is listed as questionable but has played through the tag throughout the postseason. Aaron Gordon ($12,000) is the other mid-range Nugget I'd consider here. He's put up 51.4 and 38.5 FPs over the last two games.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($13,000) -- Karl-Anthony Towns boasts our third-highest projection (38.4 FPs), and we saw him flirt with 50 FPs in Game 2. He's notched at least 20 real-world points in three of five games this series, averaging 19.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 34.8 FPPG. Perhaps most encouraging for his prospects tonight is that he's attempted 18 and 19 shots the last two games -- his most of the playoffs. KAT has the third-highest points prop (20.5) on FanDuel Sportsbook. He's someone I'd feel comfortable using in either the 1.5x or 1.2x multiplier slots, especially if you're playing Jokic at MVP.

Value Plays

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($9,000) -- Nickeil Alexander-Walker comes with a wide range of outcomes. He was stellar in the first round, averaging 26.1 FPPG, before a 2-FP dud in the series opener against Denver. NAW bounced back with a 30.7-FP effort in Game 2 but was held under 10 FPs in Games 3 and 4. He was back in Game 5 (28.9 FPs), though, so we're at least headed in the right direction. The good news is that he's still averaging north of 28 minutes this series -- more than you can say about most other players in this salary range.

Christian Braun ($8,000) -- Christian Braun has been a favorite of mine dating back to his collegiate days at Kansas, so I can't say I'm surprised to see him produce on the biggest stage in the NBA. After averaging just 14.1 minutes and 8.3 FPPG over the first eight playoff games, Braun saw 25 minutes in Game 4 and then 28 in Game 5. He took full advantage of the enhanced role last time out, notching 27 FPs. That came by way of 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steals, and 2 blocks. Braun's scoring will dictate his ceiling, but his rebounding and defensive contributions give him a sound floor for someone with a $8K salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.