FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Wild Card Saturday (Dolphins at Chiefs)

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead on Saturday night when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs are four-point home favorites, and the over/under is set at 44.0, per the NFL Odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Saturday night is expected to have brutal weather conditions that could impact fantasy performance. At the time of kickoff, it's expected to be 10 degrees with a -7 degree wind chill and wind gusts up to 24 mph. There is also a slight chance (10-20%) of snow, according to the National Weather Service.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

You can make a case for several players for the multiplier spot, but there's a clear top option for both teams.

Tyreek Hill ($16,500) carries the highest salary for a reason. Hill dominated the regular season, averaging 7.4 receptions and 112.4 yards per game to go along with 13 touchdowns. His 19.9 FanDuel points (FP) per game tied CeeDee Lamb for second at the position.

Hill notched at least 20 FP in 8 of 16 games overall -- although he faded down the stretch. He averaged just 12.7 FP over the final four games but still saw stellar utilization in the form of a 33.3% target share, 44.8% air yard share, and 47.1% red zone target share.

That said, it's a rough spot for the former Chief. Kansas City finished third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense metrics and allowed the third fewest FP per target to WRs. They were downright nasty over the final five weeks, giving up the fewest yards per route run (YPRR) to the position.

The Chiefs notably limited Hill to 8.5 FP in Week 9's matchup, so there's an argument to go against the grain. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ($13,500) has the third highest salary on the board -- though he'll face the same tough secondary as Tyreek. Tua's had some blow-up games but averaged 14.7 FP over the final eight games. He, too, struggled in their previous matchup with KC, notching 12.4 FP while totaling his second fewest passing yards (193) of the season.

Miami's non-Hill MVP candidates that I want to consider play running back. Both Raheem Mostert ($12,500) and De'Von Achane ($11,500) have flashed slate-winning upside, averaging 17 and 16.1 FP per game, respectively. Mostert hasn't played the last two games, but the Dolphins are optimistic he'll suit up this weekend.

Even if both speedsters are active, the matchup is good enough that two could tango. numberFire has the Chiefs down at No. 25 in rush defense, and they gave up the fifth-most yards per carry and the sixth-most FP per target to opposing running backs. Although Achane didn't play in the first matchup, Mostert fared well with 14.5 FP. It's hard to love a split backfield, but Miami has proven capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant backs.

Moving over to the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) will be popular in the multiplier at this salary. While he didn't have the best statistical year, Mahomes still averaged 261.4 passing yards and 18.4 FP per game. The reigning Super Bowl MVP averaged 20 FP across three postseason games last season, but he was held to 15.8 FP in their earlier date with Miami.

numberFire projects Mahomes for 19.7 FP. That's significantly higher than the next-closest player -- so much so that he's the best point-per-dollar value available even at the slate's second-highest salary.

The Dolphins are 10th in schedule-adjusted pass defense; however, they've allowed over 300 passing yards in three of their last five games. They've lost several key defenders to injury since Week 9's matchup, including cornerback Xavien Howard and their top two edge rushers -- Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips.

Isiah Pacheco ($12,000) is certainly in play at MVP after he finished 11th in Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and 13th in Rush Success Rate among backs with at least 100 carries. He's trending up, too, after a stellar final four games to close out the regular season. Over that span, he averaged 25.5 adjusted opportunities, 100.8 total yards, and 20 FP per game. The worse the weather gets ahead of Saturday night, the more appeal Pacheco has.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Travis Kelce ($11,000). The 34-year-old's production took a hit this year, but he's hardly a non-factor. Kelce finished the regular season with per-game averages of 6.2 receptions (third among TEs) and 65.6 yards (first) to go along with five touchdowns (tied for seventh). However, he failed to exceed 10 FP in each of his final three games.

While those will likely be the most popular MVP selections, Rashee Rice ($10,500) could be a sneaky contrarian pick. The rookie wideout came on strong over his final six games, pacing all KC pass catchers with a 27.5% target share and 86.3 yards per game. He scored three touchdowns over that span, culminating in 15.2 FP per game.

Flex Breakdown

From a pure upside perspective, Jaylen Waddle ($10,000) is the most interesting name outside of the MVP candidates. Waddle missed Week 18, but Miami is optimistic he's on the field this week. He averaged 11.6 FP during the regular season and notched a pair of 20-point games. Although KC's defense held him to three catches and 62 yards in Week 9, Waddle's strong target share (22.7%) and sixth-ranked YPRR makes him a capable mid-range option.

The rest of Miami's offense is less inspiring. Cedrick Wilson ($8,000) and Jeff Wilson ($8,000) have flashed in spurts but won't see many opportunities if Mostert and Waddle return. Cedrick Wilson has played 61% of snaps dating back to Week 7, but he sports a measly 9% target share over that span.

Durham Smythe ($6,500) played 78% of snaps and ran a route on 64% of drop backs during the regular season. Kansas City didn't give up much production to tight ends, but they did allow the seventh-highest target rate to the position. Even with Smythe commanding a 11.4% target share the final five games, he's merely a dart throw, salary-saver.

The Chiefs feature a slew of low-salary options, but none are projected for more than 4.5 FP.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($9,500) had an 18.1-FP gem while filling in for Pacheco in Week 15, but he's averaged just 2.9 FP and seen a 18% snap share with Pacheco active.

Justin Watson ($8,000) would be my prefered KC pass catcher in this range. He notched double-digit FP just twice in the regular season but finished third among WRs in route rate (54%) and caught three touchdowns.

Mecole Hardman ($7,500) saw a 38% target share in Week 18, but that was with everyone resting. Though he is familiar with Mahomes and claims three playoff touchdowns dating back to 2019, he's just a dart throw.

If you're really stretched thin, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,000) is probably under-salaried here. While MVS only hit double-digit points once during the regular season, he didn't lack opportunities. Even after a miraculous drop in Week 14, MVS was second in route rate the next three games before sitting Week 18.

We know -- at least in 2022 -- that 60.9% of optimal single-game DFS lineups had a kicker or defense. Both Jason Sanders ($8,500) and Harrison Butker ($8,500) carry manageable salaries, too. numberFire's model favors Butker (9.0 projected points), but Sanders (7.8) isn't far off.

Considering the weather, I'm more inclined to look toward defenses. The Miami D/ST ($9,000) injuries scare me, but Kansas City D/ST ($9,000) makes some sense after they scored 12 FP in the previous matchup. KC finished fourth in schedule-adjusted defense, and the 'Fins weren't nearly as scary against top competition. In Miami's 10 games against defenses in the top half of numberFire's metrics, the opposing D/ST averaged 7.7 FP per game.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.