FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 11/28/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Stephen Curry ($8,900) -- Stephen Curry's role isn't a can't-miss one, but he does still have nightly upside. His team-best 32.5% usage rate has produced 44.0 FanDuel points per minute overall, and this Play-In Tournament slate revolves around key game stacks. A 236.0-point total between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors could very well be the environment Steph needs to produce a vintage scoring effort.

Fred VanVleet ($8,000) -- After years at the top of pace factor leaderboards, the Houston Rockets now play at a tempo much closer to Ime Udoka's old Boston Celtics team. They're fifth from the bottom in pace, which makes the seventh-ranked Dallas Mavericks a huge uptick in projected possessions. At $8,000, it's hard to knock VanVleet because of a rock-solid floor; he's tallied at least 39 minutes in six straight games and eclipsed 37 FanDuel points in all but one of them.

Malik Monk ($5,100) -- With Keegan Murray (back) doubtful, the Kings' messy rotation could arrive on Monk tonight. Golden State regularly plays three guards, so the size disadvantage to play he and De'Aaron Fox ($10,000) together is significantly reduced. Without Murray, Monk logged a season-high 30 minutes on Friday, and we've seen scoring outbursts from him in that court time before -- something numberFire's model remembers when projecting him for 30.9 FanDuel points today.

Others to Consider

Josh Giddey ($6,300) -- Oklahoma City Thunder-Minnesota Timberwolves clash of defensive titans isn't ideal for game stacks, Giddey's salary has dipped a bit too low for a guy who has topped 35 FanDuel points four times already. Minnesota isn't a favorable matchup in many categories, but they do allow the seventh-most rebounds to combo guards, so Giddey's low usage rate and peripheral-stat-dependent profile are a great match.

Kyle Lowry ($5,200) -- Because the wretched Milwaukee Bucks defense and their elite tempo are on the other side, Jimmy Butler (ankle) is one of the marquee injury spots on the slate. With him sitting, it's a free-for-all amongst the Miami Heat's leftovers, and Lowry sees a 6.5 percentage-point increase in usage with Butler and Tyler Herro (ankle) off the floor in unison. Personally, he's the best Heat piece at a point guard spot that is a bit crowded, which could reduce his popularity.

Wings

Top Plays

OG Anunoby ($6,100) --OG Anunoby is a dangerous guy to leave at this salary now that he's topped 34 minutes in three straight and is fully back from injury. Anunoby's potential for stocks (steals plus blocks) is ever present, averaging 1.93 per 36 minutes. His opposing Brooklyn Nets give up the third-most FanDuel points per game to small forwards (45.3), so don't overlook Anunoby despite the lower game total than most (223.5).

Gordon Hayward ($5,700) --Charlotte Hornets-New York Knicks affair despite its low, 220.5-point total. It's a huge pace-up spot for New York, and Charlotte is loaded with value considering LaMelo Ball (ankle) is doubtful to go tonight. With a solid 24.3% usage rate with LaMelo off the floor, Gordon Hayward's mid-range salary is a no-brainer, but Miles Bridges ($8,000), Terry Rozier ($7,900), and Brandon Miller ($5,800) should all see bumps in shot volume.

Josh Richardson ($5,000) -- In Jimmy Butler's stead, there are many options that could end proving to be the right choice, but I don't have a shred of confidence in them outside of Lowry and Josh Richardson. Richardson was already in the rotation and logged 37 minutes on Saturday without Butler, taking 11 shots. Caleb Martin ($5,200) also took 18 shots in that one off the bench, so relying on the most well-known, veteran pieces to score is ideal while there are several young players that could end up earning Erik Spoelstra's vacated minutes.

Others to Consider

Sam Hauser ($4,700) -- Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics, and it's Boston's side that is affected. With Kristaps Porzingis (calf) already out, Jrue Holiday (ankle) is questionable. For better or for worse, Sam Hauser has taken a primary role on the C's bench and topped 30 minutes three times in injury situations, but he didn't top 20 FanDuel points in any of them. It's only a matter of time until a full role is met with his usual per-minute production.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,300) -- NBA DFS players have known that Nickeil Alexander-Walker can ball for a while, but he's now the Wolves' fifth starter with Jaden McDaniels (ankle) sidelined. The bar for production at this salary isn't high, so I'm not too concerned that he posted just 16.7 FanDuel points in 33 minutes during his trial run inside the role on Sunday. There isn't a lower-salaried guy on the slate you can lock in for 30 minutes.

Bigs

Top Plays

Alperen Sengun ($8,400) -- Alperen Sengun is shining in our projections entering this Dallas matchup. Beyond the increase in pace, Dallas cedes the fourth-most points and third-most rebounds to centers. Sengun's floor concerns seem to be fully gone as he's topped 33 minutes in seven straight games, so I have no issue forking over this salary for a guy who has topped 50 FanDuel points in two of his past three as is.

Julius Randle ($8,200) -- The Knicks are usually a place where NBA DFS joy and happiness goes to die, but this is the exact type of matchup in which we can target them. Charlotte's league-worst 120.0 defensive ratings comes with its sixth-highest pace. Julius Randle has had to navigate brutal, outlier matchups against the T-Wolves and Heat recently, but he did post 40-plus FanDuel points in six of seven games to begin this month. The Hornets' poor D can bring that guy back.

Jarrett Allen ($6,800) -- Like New York, the Cleveland Cavaliers get to step into the NBA DFS twilight zone against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Atlanta's seventh-worst defensive rating comes with the league's fourth-highest pace. Jarrett Allen is now fully up to speed with at least 35 minutes in his last two competitive affairs without foul trouble, and he's in a tremendous individual spot when the Hawks allow the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to centers (57.7).

Others to Consider

Pascal Siakam ($7,900) -- Toronto Raptors' scoring hierarchy isn't a ton of fun to target, but Anunoby and Pascal Siakam should merit our attention until their salaries rise. Siakam's team-best 25.8% usage rate has now overtaken Scottie Barnes' (24.3%) as Barnes' early-season shooting streak has cooled, so we should see better efforts soon. He's projected for 43.6 FanDuel points by numberFire despite the tough matchup tonight.

Nikola Vucevic ($7,200) -- This slate could explode with viable Celtics if Holiday is ruled out, and Nikola Vucevic is the perfect bring-back option for them. Normally around $8,000, Vucevic's 7-for-17 shooting (41.2%) in the past two games has dropped his mark to here. Not only should the efficiency rise soon, but expect more shots; he's averaging 14.7 shots per game for the season overall. We'll lean into positive regression for the talented center in a matchup that's not too shabby with Porzingis sitting.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.