FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 5/25/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Aaron Nola ($10,300)

I know pitchers at Coors Field are a bit like standing and facing the rear wall of an elevator. Some people just won't do it and think I'm unhinged for even considering it.

However, when Aaron Nola ($10,300) draws the soft Colorado Rockies offense compared to the three other highest-salaried pitchers on this slate battling the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres, I don't even think it's a question. Coors isn't the moon.

Colorado has a bottom-five wRC+ (81) and strikeout rate (25.8%) against right-handed pitching -- even with a BABIP (.319) that is indeed third in all of baseball thanks to their supreme hitting environment. The whiff upside for Nola is especially nice when he's rocking a decent 23.3% K rate as is but likely will regress. Nola has had a strikeout rate north of 25.0% for six straight seasons, and the free-swinging Rox could push him toward that mark.

Nola's 3.54 expected ERA (xERA) and 38.9% hard-hit rate allowed also check out well enough as he's about to enter the thunderdome. I think it's the right decision even as a tough one.

Walker Buehler ($8,000)

Yet, Nola might not even crack my single-entry lineup when Walker Buehler ($8,000) is about the enter a fearsome hitter's park himself with many of the same upsides and concerns.

Buehler draws the Cincinnati Reds, who he lambasted for 49 FanDuel points just last week. That's not overly surprising when the Reds have a wRC+ (79) and strikeout rate (27.9%) that's worse than the Rockies' against righties. Plus, the Dodgers' right-hander has looked surprisingly like his old self after a long stint through Tommy John rehab, returning to a 3.34 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 22.8% strikeout rate, and allowing a hard-hit baseball on just 27.9% of those in play. That's the guy who led L.A. to a World Series title.

Really, there are no concerns for $8,000, but once again the venue -- Great American Ballpark -- adds a bit of variance to his start when it has Statcast's top venue score for home runs (124). A couple of mistakes could sink his FanDuel score quickly.

Nonetheless, the Reds are likely the best team-level matchup on the slate, and Walker is in solid form. I'll take the over on his 24.9 projected fantasy points, per FanDuel Research's MLB projections.

Others to Consider

• Tanner Bibee ($8,100)
  • Bibee is sort of a third verse of this same song. With an excellent SIERA (3.64), he'll meet the Los Angeles Angels' modest rate of punchouts (23.6% versus righties) in their hitter-friendly home park. I don't think he's a bad option if you can't stomach the first two venues.
• Jordan Montgomery ($7,900)
  • There's a similar story for Monty in the Arizona Diamondbacks' park at home, but the reason I'd put him fourth is because the visiting Miami Marlins have an extremely low K rate against southpaws (19.1%). Add in Montgomery's poor strikeout rate (14.1%), and there's not a lot of fantasy upside despite a soft matchup to navigate innings.

Stacks to Target

Philadelphia Phillies

Coors Field sunk its truthers on a full Friday slate as the Rockies edged out the Phillies, 3-2, in 11 innings. At least on the visitor's side, it might bare some teeth on Saturday.

The Rockies' weakest starter, Dakota Hudson, will toe the slab. Hudson's struggles haven't resulted in an eruption to this point, maxing out at four earned runs in a home start this season. However, an ugly dive into his peripherals suggests its coming. The right-hander's 5.39 SIERA, miniscule 12.6% strikeout rate, 13.0% walk rate, and 44.1%. hard-hit rate allowed are all horrifying.

Plus, Colorado also has the second-worst reliever xFIP in MLB (4.62) once he departs.

Now, Philadelphia requires paying the piper, which is why our budget pitching options come in handy. As the Phils' top performer against righties, Bryce Harper's ($4,600) salary is a small fortune. Alec Bohm ($4,100), Bryson Stott ($3,600), and Brandon Marsh ($3,500) are others with a wRC+ over 100 in the split that come in at slightly lower salaries.

With a 6.42-run implied team total, the Phillies are Saturday's top projected stack by oddsmakers. It's pretty easy to see why.

Cleveland Guardians

This slate will likely be decided in the secondary stacks and pitching options if the Phillies explode, so I'll plant my flag on the Guardians in the two spot.

Cleveland is on the road to take on Jose Soriano of the Angels, and tonight could be the spot where Soriano's concerns turn to worse results. His sparkling 3.30 ERA is actually well-supported by a 3.88 SIERA, but a hefty walk rate (11.2%) and substantial hard-hit rate (43.3%) are both potential signs of a blowup. As usual, an added appeal of targeting the Halos is their dreadful bullpen, which currently sports the league's seventh-worst xFIP (4.32).

The Guardians' .680 OPS against righties isn't appetizing, but one of the reasons I love stacking them is that their production is solid and concentrated to a specific point in the lineup. Jose Ramirez ($4,000), Josh Naylor ($3,600), Andres Gimenez ($3,200), and David Fry ($3,000) are your members of the squad with an OPS north of .700, and they're in the top-five spots of the order.

Cleveland's 4.21-run implied team total doesn't leap right off the page, but I think they've got the second-easiest task on the main slate.

Others to Consider

• Arizona Diamondbacks
  • I understand why you'd want to target Sixto Sanchez (5.05 SIERA) and the Fish's bottom-10 bullpen, but Arizona (90 wRC+ against righties) is a consistently underwhelming group. If they're projecting popular as a companion to the Phillies, I might bail.
• Los Angeles Dodgers
  • It's always good to try and get the Dodgers on a day where they won't be popular. The star-studded attack could certainly light up Hunter Greene's 45.5% flyball rate, but their salaries are quite high when Greene seems to have turned a corner allowing hard contact (31.1% rate).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.