FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 8/3/23

As per usual, we have a smaller Thursday main slate at six games, and in this case, it's an offering that leaves us pretty light at pitcher. There shouldn't be any weather issues tonight, though, which we'll gladly take every time.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani ($10,400) typically stands out on a slate of any size, let alone one that's just six games, but when you throw in a matchup against a high-strikeout team like the Seattle Mariners on top of it, he's a no-brainer.

Among qualified starters, Ohtani ranks third in strikeout rate (32.0%), and he enters the day tied for the league's fifth-most Ks, which is truly absurd when you consider that he also leads MLB in home runs as a hitter. This guy really puts all new meaning to the term "dual threat."

His 10.2% walk rate will lead to the occasional dud, but the upside isn't in question. That will especially be the case against the Mariners, a solid offense but one that carries a 24.9% strikeout rate versus righties, the third-most among active rosters.

This isn't one to overthink -- Ohtani deserves to be in the majority of lineups tonight.

But even the best have their off days, and if we're forgoing Shohei in tournaments, jumping all the way down to Julio Urias ($8,800) might be the next-best choice.

Urias has an uncharacteristically-high 4.98 ERA that's nearly two runs higher than his career average, but both a 4.15 SIERA and 4.17 xERA suggest that he's pitched far better than that. He's struggled with home runs this season -- typically an area of strength -- but an inflated 14.8% homer-to-fly-ball rate could signal that he could be due for some positive regression.

But putting all of that aside, this is really all about Urias' matchup against the Oakland Athletics, the team that's scored the fewest runs in 2023. Against left-handers, the A's active roster owns a measly 85 wRC+, .127 ISO, and 24.2% strikeout rate. Their 3.28 implied team total is by far the slate's worst mark.

Given Urias' 22.6% strikeout rate, he isn't someone who's likely to keep pace with Ohtani when it comes to punchouts. But a 5.6% walk rate helps him stay efficient, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him put the clamps on this Oakland lineup for six-to-seven innings. Notching a win is a whole lot easier when you have an elite offense to back you up, too.

Chances are most lineups will either opt for Ohtani or Urias, leaving pretty much everyone else as potential contrarian plays. Mitch Keller ($10,200) and maybe Bryan Woo ($7,900) represent the best of the rest.

At his salary, Keller is pretty much a one-for-one replacement for Ohtani, which ought to keep his roster percentage particularly low. He's put up a rock-solid 3.81 SIERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate this season, and he pushes 100-plus pitchers in nearly every start, giving him perhaps the slate's best overall workload.

Keller's results have been a mixed bag lately, and the same can be said about his matchup. While the Milwaukee Brewers' active roster has a modest 94 wRC+ versus righties, they also strike out just 21.6% of the time. The Brewers' 4.43 implied team total is higher than we would like to see, as well.

On paper, everything points to Ohtani outscoring Keller. That said, if Keller comes through and Ohtani doesn't, those Keller lineups will have a significant leg up on the field.

Woo may have a 25.8% strikeout rate, but it's been trending in the wrong direction over the past month (19.5% in July), and last week's zero-strikeout game makes him even tougher to recommend. His pitch counts are capped at roughly 90 pitches, so volume isn't on his side, either.

A rough matchup for him against the Los Angeles Angels won't sweeten the deal. However, the one bright spot is that the Angels do swing and miss a fair bit, as their active roster owns a 24.1% strikeout rate versus right-handers. We did see Woo log seven Ks a couple of starts back, so he might not be a total lost cause just yet.

Note that Woo's righty-lefty splits are night and day, so if the Halos have more righties in their lineup, it significantly boosts his prospects. In same-sided matchups, the 23-year-old has a 2.60 xFIP and 33.3% strikeout rate, compared to 6.67 and 16.8% versus lefty sticks.

Hitting Breakdown

The Chicago Cubs' bats have dominated DFS this week, occupying multiple perfect lineup slots on both Tuesday and Wednesday. I guess that's what happens when you score 36 runs over two nights.

Well, with a slate-best 5.50 implied team total, the fun might not end on Thursday.

The Cubs will take their hacks against Luke Weaver, a right-hander with poor marks across the board. Over 18 starts, Weaver's showing a 4.96 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate while giving up a ridiculous 2.30 home runs per nine innings. Considering his 5.82 xERA, it looks like the vast majority of those dingers have been well deserved.

Cody Bellinger ($4,000) and Christopher Morel ($4,100) continue to command high salaries, but it's for good reason. Even at such high cap hits, each has made an appearance on the aforementioned perfect lineups.

But we don't need to break the bank to find pop in this lineup between guys like Dansby Swanson ($3,200), Ian Happ ($3,200), and Jeimer Candelario ($2,900). Swanson's rocking an 85th-percentile barrel rate this year, one of the team's top marks.

The Los Angeles Dodgers find there way into this space again, as well, which is to be expected against lefty JP Sears and the lowly A's.

Sears has been one of Oakland's better starters this season, but he simply can't keep the ball in the park, coughing up 1.93 home runs per nine innings off a sky-high 56.7% fly-ball rate.

Facing another southpaw, the righties lead the way again tonight but don't hesitate to throw lefties Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Max Muncy ($4,000) into the mix. Sears' xFIP (5.71) and strikeout rate (17.0%) are actually worse in same-sided matchups.

After these two teams, we see the implied team totals fall off a bit, but the Cincinnati Reds should also be on our radar again.

Although right-hander Jameson Taillon has gotten better results lately, he's someone we should always consider attacking with left-handed batters. Taillon is quite competent when facing righties, but when we flip over to lefties, we see a horrific 6.03 xFIP, 16.1% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate. Lefties have also bludgeoned him for 2.30 home runs per nine innings off a 49.0% fly-ball rate.

We won't have any shortage of lefties to choose from between Elly De La Cruz ($3,700), Jake Fraley ($3,500), TJ Friedl ($3,200), Joey Votto ($3,100), and Will Benson ($3,000). Votto continues to show that he's still got it, leading the team with a .319 ISO.

The Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels are intriguing, too. The Twins will see southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who's getting called up from Triple-A. He posted an ugly 5.59 SIERA, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate over 32 MLB innings earlier this year. As noted in the pitching section, Bryan Woo is downright awful versus left-handed batters, so if nothing else, we can pick some one-offs from the Angels.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.