Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Wednesday 5/15/24

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

Wednesday in the Premier League has two matches that need to be made up, and they will be the penultimate matches of the season for each club.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

EPL Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 15th

Chelsea at Brighton (2:45 p.m. ET)

Chelsea Moneyline (+105)

As the season wraps up, Chelsea have started to perform like their talent and spending level would suggest they should. Since February 12th, they've lost just one Premier League game, and that was against Arsenal, although it was a 5-0 thrashing.

Chelsea always had good underlying numbers throughout the season, even when they were struggling in the league table. They currently have the fourth-best expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes in the Premier League, according to FBRef.com.

Brighton and Chelsea have been compared many times over the past two seasons. It started in the summer of 2022 when Chelsea bought a few players from Brighton and then also hired Graham Potter away from Brighton to be their manager.

Brighton went on to have a much more successful season than Chelsea last year, finishing sixth compared to the Blues' 12th-place effort. At the beginning of this season, it looked like that would happen again, but Brighton's play has deteriorated throughout the campaign. They've won just one league game since March 10th.

Chelsea still have a chance to qualify for a European competition while Brighton doesn't have much to play for. With the form of these two clubs moving in opposite directions, I like Chelsea to be able to pick up the win away from home.

Newcastle at Manchester United (3 p.m. ET)

Under 3.5 Goals (+100)

These two clubs finished third and fourth last season in the Premier League, but neither will be returning to the Champions League next season. Newcastle sit in sixth place in the league table while Manchester United are down in eighth.

The main reason Manchester United won't be going back to the Champions League is because of their lackluster attacking performance. They've scored just 52 goals, fewer than the likes of Bournemouth and Brentford. They haven't created that many chances, either, with just 53.7 xG all season. Of late, they've been even worse -- scoring just one goal across their last three matches.

Man United at least have a reasonable defensive record, conceding the fifth-fewest goals in the league. They should be able to contain Newcastle at home.

As for the Magpies, there's a vast difference between how Newcastle play at home versus on the road. They've generated 46.4 total xG in home matches and just 24.1 xG away from home. Of their 30 goals in road matches, 12 of them came against the two teams who have already been relegated.

Manchester United's best attacking player, Bruno Fernandes, has been unable to play in the last two matches. They may not risk using him here, especially with the team appearing in the FA Cup Final on May 25th. Bruno sitting out would aid the under's outlook.

I see this game staying fairly low scoring, so I like getting even money on it staying under 3.5 goals. You can also take under 2.5 goals at +235 if you're really feeling risky.

Player Props

Nicolas Jackson to Score (+170): We know about the goal-scoring prowess of Cole Palmer for Chelsea, but I want to wager on Nicolas Jackson to score in this game.

Jackson has 17.8 xG this season, good for the fifth-most in the Premier League. That's actually more than Palmer has despite the Englishman taking nine penalties compared to zero for Jackson.

We're getting longer odds on Jackson than on Palmer, and Jackson was able to find the back of the net on Saturday. I'll take the +170 for him to score in this match.

Harvey Barnes to Have 2 or More Shots on Target (+210): I like taking shot props against Manchester United, and Harvey Barnes is the player I am going to bet on in this match.

Barnes leads Newcastle regulars with 3.25 shots per 90 minutes. He should play in the front three due to the injury problems Newcastle have had.

Only Sheffield United allow more shots per match than Manchester United does -- not just in England, in all of Europe's big five leagues.

Getting better than two-to-one odds for Barnes to hit the target at least twice is a number I feel good about backing.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.