Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 38: Will Man City Clinch Another Premier League Title?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

We've reached the end of the Premier League season, with one final game for every team. There are still things to be decided in the league table, and the last day could be exciting.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting Picks: Matchweek 38

Newcastle at Brentford (Sunday 11:00 AM ET)

Brentford Moneyline (+190)

Brentford are safe from relegation as we head into the final weekend of the season. They are in 16th place, which is much harsher on them than they deserve based on how they played this season.

Newcastle, meanwhile, are currently in seventh place in the league table. They were hoping to repeat their performance from last season and make the Champions League, but the best they can hope for is a spot in the Europa League.

The expected goal (xG) numbers paint a different picture than the league table does. Brentford are much better than their 16th place would indicate. They have an xG differential of +4.5, better than many of the teams ahead of them, including Tottenham, Manchester United, and West Ham.

Newcastle is not included in that list, but they have a big difference between their home form and away form. At home, they've created 46.4 xG but just 26.4 in away matches.

We're able to get nearly two-to-one odds on Brentford, who are in decent form. They have won three of their last five Premier League matches, and I could see them getting the job done here.

West Ham at Manchester City (Sunday 11:00 AM ET)

Man City to Win Both Halves (-120)

All Manchester City have to do to win the league is beat West Ham at home. Sometimes, playing the ninth-placed team in the league could be tricky, but the underlying data suggests West Ham is worse than a typical ninth-placed team.

West Ham have a -12 goal differential. Their 71 goals conceded are the most of any team that isn't in the relegation zone. In terms of xG, they've conceded the third-most in the league.

The Hammers' recent form hasn't been good, either. They've won just one of their last five Premier League matches, and that was against lowly Luton Town.

All of this is factored into the moneyline. That line has City as a -1100 favorite. The way we can take advantage of this mismatch is through Man City to win both halves.

City have been in this position a few times over the last dozen years since they won their first Premier League title in 2012. That year, they famously scored twice in stoppage to win the league. Something similar happened in 2022 when they went behind 2-0 to Aston Villa and had to come back and score three times over six minutes in the second half to win the game and the league title.

They obviously won't want to leave it late this time. It helps that they've been in great goal-scoring form. In six of their last eight league matches, they've scored at least four goals.

In this situation, City have typically gotten the job done in recent years. I want to be on the side of them getting it done again this time, and I'll take the odds of them winning both halves in this game.

Player Props

Son Heung-Min to Score (-105): Tottenham's hopes for the Champions League ended on Tuesday with a loss to Manchester City. They'll still be motivated to make the Europa League as a building block for their squad.

That means they'll play hard in this match, away to an already relegated Sheffield United. Not only have they been relegated, but their 94 goals conceded are the most of all time.

Son Heung-Min is tied for seventh in goals in the league. He will take any penalty that Spurs get in this match, so I like him to find the back of the net in this match for the -105 price.

Chris Wood to Score (+165): It's gone a bit under the radar how good Chris Wood has been this season. He's averaging 0.62 goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League, better than Son, Phil Foden and Ollie Watkins.

On Sunday, Wood takes on Burnley, his former club. Burnley have already been relegated from the Premier League. Nottingham Forest technically need a win to ensure that they aren't relegated from the league.

Wood is certainly not a flashy name, which could be baked into this line. We can take advantage of that by betting on him to score.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.