EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 33: Will Brighton Win on the Road?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 33: Will Brighton Win on the Road?

There's not many matches left in the Premier League, but there are still a ton of things to be decided at both ends of the table.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting Picks: Matchweek 33

Brighton at Burnley (10 AM ET Saturday)

Brighton Moneyline (+105)

Maybe I'm a sucker to keep believing in Brighton, but I'm buying into them again in this spot. Their recent form has not been impressive, winning just once in their last five matches in the Premier League.

Brighton started off the season hot, carrying over last year's impressive form. In 2022-23, they underperformed their expected goal (xG) differential by 4.1 goals, according to FBRef. This year, they have underperformed by 0.2 goals.

The fact that their xG differential is positive is enough to give them a big leg up on Burnley. That's because Burnley are one of the two worst teams we've seen this season. They are sitting in 19th in the league and have scored the second-fewest goals. By xG, they have the third-worst differential per 90 minutes.

Burnley have gotten a few draws of late but have won just once in 2024 in all competitions. It seems like Brighton are being undervalued in this game and should be able to get the win -- even on the road.

Defender Dara O'Shea will be suspended for this match for Burnley. He's started 27 league games out of 32, so he's clearly an important piece for the Clarets. Being without him could hurt Burnley against a good Brighton attack.

Luton Town at Manchester City (10 AM ET Saturday)

Both Teams to Score (+114)

We're going to explore a different market than we normally do, but this one makes a lot of sense.

Manchester City are huge favorites to win, currently -1150 on the moneyline. When you look at basically any metric, you'll understand why.

City have failed to score in just three league games this season -- only one of which at home. That was against Arsenal, who have been one of the best defensive teams in Europe's big five leagues.

Where City have been a bit weaker has been defensively. They've conceded 31 goals in 31 games this season after they allowed only 33 in 38 games last season. In their last two games, they've conceded five total goals, although one of those was a tough matchup away to Real Madrid.

Despite Luton Town's struggles, one area where they have been able to compete in their first season in the league is scoring. Before getting blanked by Arsenal on April 3rd, Luton had scored in 18 league matches in a row. That includes at home against Manchester City.

With this match coming between the two legs of Man City's Champions League quarterfinal against Real Madrid, City may use the opportunity to do some squad rotation against one of the weakest teams in the Premier League. That could cause some defensive lapses for them, allowing Luton chances to score.

Getting better than even money on this bet, I'll take both teams to score at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

Player Props

Rodrigo Muniz to Score (+210): Rodrigo Muniz had a run of goal scoring that was a lifeline for Fulham. He scored eight goals in eight games and helped his club avoid being sucked into the relegation battle.

He hasn't scored in his last two matches, but Muniz has a good chance to score in this match. He'll face West Ham, who have allowed the third-most xG in the league. The Hammers aren't the deepest team, so the fact that they've had to travel in the Europa League on Thursday hurts them.

Getting better than 2/1 odds, I'll take my chances that Muniz can score.

Dominic Solanke to Have Two or More Shots on Target (+155): Believe it or not, Bournemouth are favored over Manchester United on Saturday. They are barely favored, but some of the metrics show this is correct.

In their last three matches, United have allowed over 3.0 expected goals and at least 26 shots in each of them. Sure, two of them were against Liverpool and Chelsea, but even Brentford had 31 shots.

This isn't a new trend, either -- only Sheffield United allow more shots per game than United does across Europe's big five leagues.

With Solanke being seventh in the Premier League in shots per game (2.9), I like his chances of getting at least two shots on target in this match -- especially at these +155 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.